Volos NFC 0-1 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Volos NFC vs PAOK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 26 as Volos NFC welcome PAOK to Panthessaliko Stadio. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 March 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Volos NFC have posted 5W 1D 4L at Panthessaliko Stadio — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
PAOK — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAOK's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. PAOK are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Volos NFC, 1 for PAOK and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2022, ended 0–3 with PAOK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Volos NFC trading profile (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
PAOK trading profile (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 52% versus PAOK 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 57% | PAOK 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 0.94 xG and PAOK 2.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.998 / defence 1.575 | PAOK attack 1.322 / defence 0.756. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 0.992. PAOK's defence strength of 0.756 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.322 — the away xG of 2.07 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Volos NFC games / 51 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 13% | Draw 26% | PAOK 61%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 7.69 | Draw 3.85 | PAOK 1.64. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (61%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Volos NFC 60% | PAOK 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Mar 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 13% | Draw 26% | PAOK 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG Volos NFC 0.94 / PAOK 2.07 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.998 / def 1.575 | PAOK attack 1.322 / def 0.756 | league avg home 1.239 / away 0.992 • Poisson stance: PAOK (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
2.07
PAOK xG
56%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs PAOK kick off?
Volos NFC vs PAOK kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 12 March 2023 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs PAOK?
Volos NFC 0 - 1 PAOK.
Where is Volos NFC vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs PAOK part of?
Volos NFC vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 13% chance of winning, PAOK a 61% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Volos NFC and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and PAOK?
Record (1 meetings): Volos NFC 0W | Draws 0 | PAOK 1W.
What form are Volos NFC and PAOK in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. PAOK (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Volos NFC's attack at 1.00x the league average against PAOK's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAOK's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 2.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.6%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
13%
7.54
26%
3.83
61%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
3.00
2.07
PAOK xG
7.54
13%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
1.65
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
13%
7.89
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
2%
59.48
24%
4.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 10.3 | 10.6 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Volos NFC and 2.07 for PAOK, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs PAOK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Volos NFC's recent record stands at 21W 16D 21L from 58 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK, meanwhile, have gone 31W 16D 11L across 58 games — 1.88 PPG, with D-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours PAOK by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Volos NFC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Volos NFC have managed 11W 5D 12L from 28 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAOK's away record stands at 12W 9D 7L across 28 trips, a 1.61 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Volos NFC are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.67 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and PAOK in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 21W 16D 21L in their last 58 games (1.36 PPG), while PAOK have gone 31W 16D 11L in their last 58 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.36 PPG; PAOK away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Volos NFC or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Volos NFC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, PAOK in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Volos NFC and PAOK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jan 2024, when PAOK won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Volos NFC's record when hosting PAOK specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Volos NFC
0
Draws
8
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 2, PAOK have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Volos NFC 2-1 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 50%, PAOK 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Volos NFC) and 43% (PAOK).
On the defensive side: PAOK in 43%; Volos NFC have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 43% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Volos NFC's recent games and 43% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Volos NFC and PAOK tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, PAOK in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAOK edge out Volos NFC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Volos NFC 0-1 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 0.94 xG and PAOK 2.07 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Volos NFC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. PAOK landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 1.00 / defence 1.57 against PAOK attack 1.32 / defence 0.76, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 13% | Draw 26% | PAOK 61%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 57%, PAOK 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PAOK's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.36. Form held, and they took the win. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. PAOK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.