PAS Giannina 1-4 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAS Giannina at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 6 as PAS Giannina welcome Panetolikos to Stadio Zosimades. Kick-off is set for Monday 3 October 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PAS Giannina — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. PAS Giannina have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Zosimades, PAS Giannina have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Zosimades. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — PAS Giannina are significantly better at Stadio Zosimades than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Panetolikos stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Panetolikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Panetolikos's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Panetolikos's 1.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of PAS Giannina's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for PAS Giannina, 0 for Panetolikos and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2022, ended 1–0 with PAS Giannina winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
PAS Giannina trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Panetolikos trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 34% versus Panetolikos 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAS Giannina 34% | Panetolikos 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 1.27 xG and Panetolikos 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 1.084 / defence 1.087 | Panetolikos attack 1.055 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 0.900. Data: 31 PAS Giannina games / 31 Panetolikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 39% | Draw 34% | Panetolikos 27%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 2.56 | Draw 2.94 | Panetolikos 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PAS Giannina as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Panetolikos (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAS Giannina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: PAS Giannina 40% | Panetolikos 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Monday 3 Oct 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 39% | Draw 34% | Panetolikos 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 49% | xG PAS Giannina 1.27 / Panetolikos 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 1.084 / def 1.087 | Panetolikos attack 1.055 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.211 / away 0.900 • Poisson stance: PAS Giannina (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Panetolikos xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos kick off?
PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 3 October 2022 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos?
PAS Giannina 1 - 4 Panetolikos.
Where is PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos part of?
PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 39% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 27% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making PAS Giannina the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both PAS Giannina and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Panetolikos?
Record (2 meetings): PAS Giannina 2W | Draws 0 | Panetolikos 0W.
What form are PAS Giannina and Panetolikos in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Panetolikos (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
PAS Giannina's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Panetolikos's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Panetolikos's attack versus PAS Giannina's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAS Giannina Win
39%
2.57
34%
2.96
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
2.30
1.03
Panetolikos xG
2.57
39%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
8%
13.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.3 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.1 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 1.03 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
PAS Giannina's recent record stands at 11W 10D 17L from 38 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for PAS Giannina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Panetolikos, meanwhile, have gone 12W 8D 18L across 38 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-W-D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Panetolikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAS Giannina on 1.13 PPG, Panetolikos on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, PAS Giannina have managed 8W 6D 5L from 19 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — PAS Giannina are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Panetolikos's away record stands at 7W 3D 9L across 19 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
PAS Giannina are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 1.00 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Early Season
Panetolikos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 11W 10D 17L in their last 38 games (1.13 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 12W 8D 18L in their last 38 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAS Giannina at home or Panetolikos away?
PAS Giannina's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAS Giannina at home: 1.58 PPG; Panetolikos away: 1.26 PPG.
Have PAS Giannina or Panetolikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Panetolikos in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2021, when PAS Giannina won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAS Giannina's record when hosting Panetolikos specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
PAS Giannina
4
Draws
1
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Panetolikos?
From 8 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 3, Panetolikos have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when PAS Giannina 1-1 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and Panetolikos?
PAS Giannina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAS Giannina 53%, Panetolikos 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (PAS Giannina) and 58% (Panetolikos).
On the defensive side: PAS Giannina keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Panetolikos in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play Panetolikos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of PAS Giannina's games and 58% of Panetolikos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PAS Giannina vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of PAS Giannina's recent games and 58% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAS Giannina and Panetolikos tend to score early?
PAS Giannina have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Panetolikos in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Panetolikos run riot with a 1-4 hammering of PAS Giannina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panetolikos beat PAS Giannina 1-4 at Stadio Zosimades, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 1.27 xG and Panetolikos 1.03 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Panetolikos outscored their 1.03 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 1.08 / defence 1.09 against Panetolikos attack 1.05 / defence 0.97, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 39% | Draw 34% | Panetolikos 27%, with PAS Giannina to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Panetolikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 34%, Panetolikos 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Panetolikos's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAS Giannina 1.13 PPG, Panetolikos 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Panetolikos (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.