PAS Giannina 0-1 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Asteras Tripolis at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PAS Giannina host Asteras Tripolis at Stadio Zosimades in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 April 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
PAS Giannina — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
PAS Giannina's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Zosimades this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Asteras Tripolis have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Asteras Tripolis have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: PAS Giannina 0.70 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. PAS Giannina register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Asteras Tripolis in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for PAS Giannina, 1 for Asteras Tripolis and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Jan 2024, ended 2–1 with PAS Giannina winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
PAS Giannina trading profile (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Asteras Tripolis trading profile (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 58% versus Asteras Tripolis 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAS Giannina 50% | Asteras Tripolis 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 1.24 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 0.701 / defence 1.101 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.942 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.361. PAS Giannina's attack strength of 0.701 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 PAS Giannina games / 52 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 31% | Draw 31% | Asteras Tripolis 39%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Asteras Tripolis 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Asteras Tripolis at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: PAS Giannina 60% | Asteras Tripolis 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 31% | Draw 31% | Asteras Tripolis 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG PAS Giannina 1.24 / Asteras Tripolis 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 0.701 / def 1.101 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.942 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Asteras Tripolis xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis?
PAS Giannina 0 - 1 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 31% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis?
Record (7 meetings): PAS Giannina 3W | Draws 3 | Asteras Tripolis 1W.
What form are PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PAS Giannina's attack rating (0.70) and Asteras Tripolis's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Asteras Tripolis's attack versus PAS Giannina's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
31%
3.25
31%
3.26
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
2.66
1.41
Asteras Tripolis xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
7%
13.35
11%
8.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 1.41 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PAS Giannina's recent record stands at 10W 23D 29L from 62 games, a 0.85 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five.
Asteras Tripolis, meanwhile, have gone 14W 20D 28L across 62 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAS Giannina on 0.85 PPG, Asteras Tripolis on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, PAS Giannina have managed 7W 12D 11L from 30 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Asteras Tripolis's away record stands at 4W 7D 19L across 30 trips, a 0.63 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAS Giannina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PAS Giannina are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 0.97 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Current Season
Asteras Tripolis
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 10W 23D 29L in their last 62 games (0.85 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 14W 20D 28L in their last 62 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAS Giannina at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
PAS Giannina's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAS Giannina at home: 1.10 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
PAS Giannina's record when hosting Asteras Tripolis specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
PAS Giannina
3
Draws
2
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis?
From 8 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 3, Asteras Tripolis have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when PAS Giannina 0-1 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis?
PAS Giannina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAS Giannina 53%, Asteras Tripolis 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (PAS Giannina) and 47% (Asteras Tripolis).
On the defensive side: PAS Giannina have failed to score in 40% of games; Asteras Tripolis in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 43% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of PAS Giannina's recent games and 47% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
PAS Giannina have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Asteras Tripolis edge out PAS Giannina 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Asteras Tripolis beat PAS Giannina 0-1 at Stadio Zosimades, Relegation Round - 4, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 1.24 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.41 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. PAS Giannina fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 0.70 / defence 1.10 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.94 / defence 1.08, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 31% | Draw 31% | Asteras Tripolis 39%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 50%, Asteras Tripolis 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAS Giannina 0.85 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Asteras Tripolis win broke the near-deadlock. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.