PAOK 1-0 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAOK at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAOK vs Lamia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Lamia travel to Stadio Toumbas to take on PAOK. The game is scheduled for Monday 12 September 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PAOK — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. PAOK have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, PAOK have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stadio Toumbas — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — PAOK are significantly better at Stadio Toumbas than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Lamia have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Lamia have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamia's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — PAOK at 1.20 PPG versus Lamia's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for PAOK, 0 for Lamia and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2022, ended 2–0 with PAOK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
PAOK trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Lamia trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 47% versus Lamia 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 42% | Lamia 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.25 xG and Lamia 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.112 / defence 0.829 | Lamia attack 0.934 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.042. Data: 29 PAOK games / 29 Lamia games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: PAOK 44% | Draw 34% | Lamia 22%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.27 | Draw 2.94 | Lamia 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAOK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 50% | Lamia 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (29 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Monday 12 Sep 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 44% | Draw 34% | Lamia 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG PAOK 1.25 / Lamia 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.112 / def 0.829 | Lamia attack 0.934 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.042 • Poisson stance: PAOK (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Lamia xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Lamia kick off?
PAOK vs Lamia kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 12 September 2022 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Lamia?
PAOK 1 - 0 Lamia.
Where is PAOK vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Lamia part of?
PAOK vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 44% chance of winning, Lamia a 22% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both PAOK and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Lamia?
Record (2 meetings): PAOK 2W | Draws 0 | Lamia 0W.
What form are PAOK and Lamia in?
PAOK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Lamia (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PAOK's attack rating (1.11) and Lamia's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus PAOK's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (29/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
44%
2.25
34%
2.96
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.06
0.81
Lamia xG
2.25
44%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
20%
5.04
6%
16.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 10.3 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.9 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are PAOK and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for PAOK and 0.81 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, PAOK have picked up 1.87 PPG on a 21W 8D 9L record — D-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for PAOK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lamia's form line: 7W 11D 20L from 38 games, 0.84 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Lamia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, PAOK are the form team by 1.03 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, PAOK have posted 2.11 PPG from 19 outings (12W 4D 3L).
On the road, Lamia have gone 5W 5D 9L from 19 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PAOK are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.74 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Early Season
Lamia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Lamia in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 21W 8D 9L in their last 38 games (1.87 PPG), while Lamia have gone 7W 11D 20L in their last 38 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Lamia away?
PAOK's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.11 PPG; Lamia away: 1.05 PPG.
Have PAOK or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Lamia in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAOK and Lamia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
PAOK have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Feb 2025, when PAOK won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAOK's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
PAOK
1
Draws
0
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 9, Lamia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when PAOK 7-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Lamia?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 53%, Lamia 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (PAOK) and 37% (Lamia).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Lamia in 32%; Lamia in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of PAOK's recent matches and 37% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of PAOK's recent games and 37% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Lamia tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Lamia in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAOK edge out Lamia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Lamia 1-0 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.25 xG and Lamia 0.81 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lamia landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.11 / defence 0.83 against Lamia attack 0.93 / defence 0.96, drawn from 29/29 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 44% | Draw 34% | Lamia 22%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 42%, Lamia 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lamia's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.84. That form edge translated into the three points. PAOK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.