PAOK 3-2 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAOK at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Toumbas plays host to PAOK versus Asteras Tripolis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 19 December 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAOK have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Toumbas, PAOK have gone 3W 1D 2L this season (6 games, 1.67 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Asteras Tripolis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Asteras Tripolis's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 2L across 7 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for PAOK against 1.50 for Asteras Tripolis. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — PAOK lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with PAOK winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
PAOK — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Asteras Tripolis — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 57% versus Asteras Tripolis 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 64% | Asteras Tripolis 21%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.29 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.234 / defence 1.222 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.596 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.046 / away 1.245. Data: 14 PAOK games / 14 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 45% | Draw 28% | Asteras Tripolis 26%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Asteras Tripolis 3.85. PAOK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: PAOK 50% | Asteras Tripolis 43%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Dec 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 45% | Draw 28% | Asteras Tripolis 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG PAOK 1.29 / Asteras Tripolis 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.234 / def 1.222 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.596 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.046 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: PAOK (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Asteras Tripolis xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 19 December 2021 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis?
PAOK 3 - 2 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 45% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both PAOK and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Asteras Tripolis?
Record (1 meetings): PAOK 1W | Draws 0 | Asteras Tripolis 0W.
What form are PAOK and Asteras Tripolis in?
PAOK (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAOK's attack at 1.23x the league average against Asteras Tripolis's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Asteras Tripolis's attack (0.60x) against PAOK's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
45%
2.20
28%
3.52
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.20
0.91
Asteras Tripolis xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
7%
13.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 10.1 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.0 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are PAOK and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for PAOK and 0.91 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAOK's recent record stands at 8W 1D 5L from 14 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Asteras Tripolis, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 5L across 14 games — 1.21 PPG, with D-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours PAOK by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Asteras Tripolis heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, PAOK have managed 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Asteras Tripolis's away record stands at 1W 3D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAOK are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 0.93 scored and 0.86 conceded. PAOK's scoring rate against Asteras Tripolis's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Asteras Tripolis in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 8W 1D 5L in their last 14 games (1.79 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 4W 5D 5L in their last 14 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
PAOK's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 1.67 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 1.00 PPG.
Have PAOK or Asteras Tripolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Asteras Tripolis in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won 3-0 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
PAOK
3
Draws
0
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Asteras Tripolis?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 7, Asteras Tripolis have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when PAOK 2-0 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Asteras Tripolis?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 50%, Asteras Tripolis 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for PAOK and 17% for Asteras Tripolis.
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis in 33%; PAOK have failed to score in 33% of games; Asteras Tripolis in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of PAOK's recent matches and 50% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of PAOK's recent games and 17% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAOK edge out Asteras Tripolis 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Asteras Tripolis 3-2 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.29 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.91 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. PAOK beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Asteras Tripolis outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.23 / defence 1.22 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.60 / defence 1.00, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 45% | Draw 28% | Asteras Tripolis 26%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 64%, Asteras Tripolis 21%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.