PAOK 2-0 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PAOK (77%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as PAOK face Asteras Tripolis.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Toumba Stadium plays host to PAOK versus Asteras Tripolis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAOK have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Toumba Stadium, PAOK have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Toumba Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — PAOK are significantly better at Toumba Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Asteras Tripolis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Asteras Tripolis's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward PAOK. A 1.60 PPG lead over Asteras Tripolis (2.10 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours PAOK, who have won 6 of the last 9 meetings against Asteras Tripolis — a 3D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both PAOK and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
PAOK — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Asteras Tripolis — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 53% versus Asteras Tripolis 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 64% | Asteras Tripolis 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 2.23 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.281 / defence 0.636 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.729 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.096. PAOK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.281 — their λ of 2.23 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Asteras Tripolis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing PAOK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. PAOK's defence rating of 0.636 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 PAOK games / 48 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 77% | Draw 17% | Asteras Tripolis 7%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.30 | Draw 5.88 | Asteras Tripolis 14.29. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (77%) — a 70pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 30% | Asteras Tripolis 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Toumba Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Mar 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 77% | Draw 17% | Asteras Tripolis 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 36% | xG PAOK 2.23 / Asteras Tripolis 0.51 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.281 / def 0.636 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.729 / def 1.246 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: PAOK (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.51
Asteras Tripolis xG
36%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Toumba Stadium.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis?
PAOK 2 - 0 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Toumba Stadium.
What competition is PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 77% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 7% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both PAOK and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Asteras Tripolis?
Record (9 meetings): PAOK 6W | Draws 3 | Asteras Tripolis 0W.
What form are PAOK and Asteras Tripolis in?
PAOK (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAOK's attack at 1.28x the league average against Asteras Tripolis's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 2.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Asteras Tripolis's attack (0.73x) against PAOK's defence (0.64x) — and the away total comes out at 0.51.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 3-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
77%
1.30
17%
6.04
7%
14.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
3 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.74
0.51
Asteras Tripolis xG
1.30
77%
Home win
6.04
17%
Draw
14.88
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
60%
1.66
11%
9.32
Win to Nil
46%
2.17
1%
138.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 7.3 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 16.1 | 8.2 | 2.1 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 3 | 12.0 | 6.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are PAOK and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for PAOK and 0.51 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAOK's recent record stands at 32W 9D 12L from 53 games, a 1.98 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Asteras Tripolis, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 26L across 53 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours PAOK by 0.90 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Asteras Tripolis heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, PAOK have managed 17W 4D 5L from 26 games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Asteras Tripolis's away record stands at 6W 6D 14L across 26 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAOK are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 1.02 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 32W 9D 12L in their last 53 games (1.98 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 15W 12D 26L in their last 53 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
PAOK's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.12 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 0.92 PPG.
Have PAOK or Asteras Tripolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Asteras Tripolis in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won 3-0 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
PAOK
3
Draws
0
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Asteras Tripolis?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 7, Asteras Tripolis have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when PAOK 2-0 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Asteras Tripolis?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 38%, Asteras Tripolis 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (PAOK) and 46% (Asteras Tripolis).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Asteras Tripolis in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of PAOK's recent matches and 50% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of PAOK's recent games and 46% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAOK cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Asteras Tripolis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Asteras Tripolis 2-0 at Toumba Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 2.23 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.51 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.28 / defence 0.64 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.73 / defence 1.25, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 77% | Draw 17% | Asteras Tripolis 7%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 77%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 64%, Asteras Tripolis 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.