Panserraikos 0-1 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Panetolikos at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panserraikos vs Panetolikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Panetolikos make the trip to Dimotiko Stadio Serron to face Panserraikos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Monday 8 December 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Panserraikos (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Panserraikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panserraikos at Dimotiko Stadio Serron this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Panserraikos are significantly better at Dimotiko Stadio Serron than their overall form suggests.
Panetolikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Panetolikos have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.50 PPG for Panserraikos against 0.90 for Panetolikos. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 6 meetings, Panetolikos have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Panserraikos's 0, with 2 draws in the mix.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2025, ended 0–1 with Panetolikos winning.
It is worth noting that Panetolikos have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Panserraikos — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Panetolikos — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panserraikos 52% versus Panetolikos 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panserraikos 60% | Panetolikos 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panserraikos 0.88 xG and Panetolikos 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panserraikos attack 0.626 / defence 1.443 | Panetolikos attack 0.782 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.236. Panserraikos's attack strength of 0.626 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Panserraikos games / 38 Panetolikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panserraikos 24% | Draw 27% | Panetolikos 49%. Fair-value odds: Panserraikos 4.17 | Draw 3.70 | Panetolikos 2.04. Panetolikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panetolikos are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panetolikos if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Panserraikos 40% | Panetolikos 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panserraikos vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Dimotiko Stadio Serron • Kick-off: Monday 8 Dec 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panserraikos 24% | Draw 27% | Panetolikos 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Panserraikos 0.88 / Panetolikos 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Panserraikos attack 0.626 / def 1.443 | Panetolikos attack 0.782 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Panserraikos xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Panetolikos xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panserraikos vs Panetolikos kick off?
Panserraikos vs Panetolikos kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 8 December 2025 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What was the final score in Panserraikos vs Panetolikos?
Panserraikos 0 - 1 Panetolikos.
Where is Panserraikos vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What competition is Panserraikos vs Panetolikos part of?
Panserraikos vs Panetolikos is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panserraikos vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives Panserraikos a 24% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 49% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panserraikos vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Panserraikos and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will Panserraikos vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Panetolikos?
Record (6 meetings): Panserraikos 0W | Draws 2 | Panetolikos 4W.
What form are Panserraikos and Panetolikos in?
Panserraikos (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Panetolikos (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Panserraikos's attack at 0.63x the league average against Panetolikos's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Panetolikos's attack (0.78x) against Panserraikos's defence (1.44x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.7%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
24%
4.23
27%
3.66
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Panserraikos xG
Total xG
2.27
1.39
Panetolikos xG
4.23
24%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
42%
2.41
Win to Nil
6%
17.04
20%
4.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 14.4 | 10.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panserraikos vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Panserraikos and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Panserraikos and 1.39 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Panserraikos vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Panserraikos have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 11W 9D 28L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Panserraikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panetolikos's form line: 16W 12D 20L from 48 games, 1.25 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for Panserraikos against 1.25 for Panetolikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Panserraikos have posted 1.17 PPG from 24 outings (7W 7D 10L).
On the road, Panetolikos have gone 7W 10D 7L from 24 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Panserraikos are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 0.88 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Panetolikos in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panserraikos
Blended
Panetolikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panserraikos and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
Panserraikos have gone 11W 9D 28L in their last 48 games (0.88 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 16W 12D 20L in their last 48 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panserraikos at home or Panetolikos away?
Panetolikos's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panserraikos at home: 1.17 PPG; Panetolikos away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Panserraikos or Panetolikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panserraikos have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Panetolikos in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Panetolikos won 3-0 on 16 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panserraikos have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Panserraikos
4
Draws
5
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Panetolikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Panserraikos have won 1, Panetolikos have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Panserraikos and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Panserraikos 1-1 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panserraikos and Panetolikos?
Panetolikos have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Panetolikos see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panserraikos 54%, Panetolikos 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Panserraikos) and 21% (Panetolikos).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos in 38%; Panserraikos have failed to score in 33% of games; Panetolikos in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panserraikos home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panserraikos play Panetolikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Panserraikos's recent matches and 38% of Panetolikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panserraikos vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Panserraikos's recent games and 21% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panserraikos and Panetolikos tend to score early?
Panserraikos have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Panetolikos in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Panetolikos edge out Panserraikos 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panetolikos beat Panserraikos 0-1 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 0.88 xG and Panetolikos 1.39 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Panserraikos fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 0.63 / defence 1.44 against Panetolikos attack 0.78 / defence 0.94, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 24% | Draw 27% | Panetolikos 49%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 60%, Panetolikos 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panserraikos's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Panetolikos's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panserraikos 0.88 PPG, Panetolikos 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panserraikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Panetolikos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.