Panserraikos 0-0 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panserraikos at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Panserraikos face Atromitos.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Atromitos travel to Dimotiko Stadio Serron to take on Panserraikos in Super League 1 (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 February 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Panserraikos — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Panserraikos's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Atromitos have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Atromitos have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Panserraikos at 1.00 PPG versus Atromitos's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Panserraikos's last 10 home games and Atromitos's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Panserraikos, 0 for Atromitos and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended Panserraikos 1–1 Atromitos — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Panserraikos trading profile (last 23 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Atromitos trading profile (last 23 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panserraikos 48% versus Atromitos 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panserraikos 44% | Atromitos 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panserraikos 1.48 xG and Atromitos 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panserraikos attack 0.802 / defence 1.197 | Atromitos attack 0.880 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.338. Data: built from Panserraikos's last 23 games and Atromitos's last 49.
Result probabilities: Panserraikos 38% | Draw 27% | Atromitos 35%. Fair-value odds: Panserraikos 2.63 | Draw 3.67 | Atromitos 2.88. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.48 / 1.41) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Panserraikos as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panserraikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Panserraikos's last 10 home games and Atromitos's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Panserraikos 70% (last 10 home games) | Atromitos 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panserraikos vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 24 | Venue: Dimotiko Stadio Serron • Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panserraikos 38% | Draw 27% | Atromitos 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Panserraikos 1.48 / Atromitos 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Panserraikos attack 0.802 / def 1.197 | Atromitos attack 0.880 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Panserraikos (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Panserraikos xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Atromitos xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Panserraikos vs Atromitos FAQs
What time does Panserraikos vs Atromitos kick off?
Panserraikos vs Atromitos kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What was the final score in Panserraikos vs Atromitos?
Panserraikos 0 - 0 Atromitos.
Where is Panserraikos vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What competition is Panserraikos vs Atromitos part of?
Panserraikos vs Atromitos is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 24) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panserraikos vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Panserraikos a 38% chance of winning, Atromitos a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Panserraikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panserraikos vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Panserraikos and Atromitos will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Panserraikos vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Panserraikos's attack at 0.80x the league average against Atromitos's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Panserraikos's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Panserraikos's last 23 games and Atromitos's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Panserraikos Win
38%
2.63
27%
3.67
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Panserraikos xG
Total xG
2.89
1.41
Atromitos xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
9%
10.75
8%
12.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.6 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Panserraikos vs Atromitos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Panserraikos vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Panserraikos and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Panserraikos and 1.41 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Panserraikos vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Panserraikos come into this having played 23 games, going 5W 8D 10L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-L.
On the other side, Atromitos sit at 1.00 PPG from 23 outings (5W 8D 10L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panserraikos on 1.00 PPG, Atromitos on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Panserraikos's home form reads 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 home games, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Atromitos have taken 0.80 points per game from their last 10 away games (2W 2D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panserraikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Panserraikos are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.09 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Last 23 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panserraikos
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
Panserraikos (Home) vs Atromitos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Panserraikos
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Panserraikos vs Atromitos Form FAQs
What form are Panserraikos and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Panserraikos have gone 5W 8D 10L in their last 23 games (1.00 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 5W 8D 10L in their last 23 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panserraikos at home or Atromitos away?
Panserraikos's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panserraikos at home: 1.40 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 21 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Atromitos have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 May 2026, when Atromitos won Atromitos 6-0 Panserraikos.
Panserraikos's record when hosting Atromitos specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Panserraikos
5
Draws
4
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Panserraikos vs Atromitos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Atromitos?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Panserraikos have won 0, Atromitos have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Panserraikos and Atromitos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 May 2026: Atromitos 6-0 Panserraikos.
Who has won more matches between Panserraikos and Atromitos?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Panserraikos at 70%, Atromitos at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Panserraikos and 70% for Atromitos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atromitos in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panserraikos home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Panserraikos vs Atromitos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Panserraikos and Atromitos matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Panserraikos's games and 70% of Atromitos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Panserraikos and Atromitos matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Panserraikos's matches and 70% of Atromitos's.
Do Panserraikos and Atromitos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Panserraikos's recent matches and 100% of Atromitos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Panserraikos's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panserraikos and Atromitos finished level at 0-0 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 1.48 xG and Atromitos 1.41 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Panserraikos fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Atromitos landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 0.80 / defence 1.20 against Atromitos attack 0.88 / defence 1.16, drawn from 23/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 38% | Draw 27% | Atromitos 35%, with Panserraikos to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 44%, Atromitos 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panserraikos's trading profile (23 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atromitos's trading profile (23 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panserraikos 1.00 PPG, Atromitos 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Panserraikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.