Panetolikos 0-2 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis meet at Stadio Panetolikou in Super League 1, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 January 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Panetolikos have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Panetolikou, Panetolikos have gone 2W 2D 4L this season (8 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Panetolikou this season.
Aris Thessalonikis (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Panetolikos, 1.50 for Aris Thessalonikis — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Panetolikos, 1 for Aris Thessalonikis and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 1–5 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Panetolikos half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Aris Thessalonikis half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 67% versus Aris Thessalonikis 28%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 72% | Aris Thessalonikis 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 0.96 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.967 / defence 1.295 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.675 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 0.964 / away 1.152. Data: 18 Panetolikos games / 18 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 33% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 36%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Aris Thessalonikis 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.96 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Panetolikos 75% | Aris Thessalonikis 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jan 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 33% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Panetolikos 0.96 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.967 / def 1.295 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.675 / def 1.026 | league avg home 0.964 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Aris Thessalonikis xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 30 January 2022 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Panetolikos 0 - 2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 33% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (1 meetings): Panetolikos 0W | Draws 0 | Aris Thessalonikis 1W.
What form are Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Panetolikos's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Aris Thessalonikis's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (0.68x) against Panetolikos's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
33%
3.02
31%
3.21
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
1.96
1.01
Aris Thessalonikis xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
12%
8.27
14%
7.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 14.1 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.01 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Panetolikos come into this having played 18 games, going 6W 3D 9L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Aris Thessalonikis sit at 1.61 PPG from 18 outings (8W 5D 5L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Panetolikos's home form reads 2W 2D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Aris Thessalonikis have taken 1.38 points per game from 8 outings (3W 2D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Panetolikos are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 0.94 scored and 0.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Panetolikos have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Aris Thessalonikis in 28%.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 6W 3D 9L in their last 18 games (1.17 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 8W 5D 5L in their last 18 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Aris Thessalonikis's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.00 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Panetolikos or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panetolikos have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Aris Thessalonikis won 5-1 on 24 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panetolikos have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Panetolikos
0
Draws
7
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 3, Aris Thessalonikis have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Panetolikos 0-1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 75%, Aris Thessalonikis 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Panetolikos) and 25% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis in 38%; Aris Thessalonikis in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Aris Thessalonikis?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Panetolikos's games and 38% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Panetolikos's recent games and 25% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aris Thessalonikis cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Panetolikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Panetolikos 0-2 at Stadio Panetolikou, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 0.96 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.01 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Panetolikos fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Aris Thessalonikis outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.97 / defence 1.29 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.68 / defence 1.03, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 33% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 36%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 72%, Aris Thessalonikis 28%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.