Panathinaikos 1-1 Larisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panathinaikos at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panathinaikos vs Larisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Larisa make the trip to Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium to face Panathinaikos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Panathinaikos (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panathinaikos's home record at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Larisa have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Larisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Larisa away from home this season: 2W 3D 4L from 9 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Panathinaikos's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Larisa's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Panathinaikos, 0 for Larisa and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Panathinaikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Larisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panathinaikos 45% versus Larisa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panathinaikos 50% | Larisa 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 1.92 xG and Larisa 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 1.272 / defence 0.823 | Larisa attack 0.857 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.135. Panathinaikos carry an above-average attack strength of 1.272 — their λ of 1.92 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 45 Panathinaikos games / 20 Larisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 64% | Draw 22% | Larisa 15%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 1.56 | Draw 4.55 | Larisa 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Panathinaikos (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panathinaikos are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Panathinaikos 50% | Larisa 44%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs Larisa | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 64% | Draw 22% | Larisa 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 47% | xG Panathinaikos 1.92 / Larisa 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 1.272 / def 0.823 | Larisa attack 0.857 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Larisa xG
47%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panathinaikos vs Larisa kick off?
Panathinaikos vs Larisa kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs Larisa?
Panathinaikos 1 - 1 Larisa.
Where is Panathinaikos vs Larisa being played?
The match is being played at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs Larisa part of?
Panathinaikos vs Larisa is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs Larisa?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 64% chance of winning, Larisa a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Larisa?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Panathinaikos and Larisa will score (BTTS).
Will Panathinaikos vs Larisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Larisa?
Record (1 meetings): Panathinaikos 0W | Draws 1 | Larisa 0W.
What form are Panathinaikos and Larisa in?
Panathinaikos (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Larisa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Panathinaikos's attack rating (1.27) and Larisa's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Larisa's attack (0.86x) against Panathinaikos's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 45/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.4%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
64%
1.57
22%
4.63
15%
6.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
2.72
0.80
Larisa xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
6.79
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
15%
6.83
Win to Nil
29%
3.50
2%
46.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 10.1 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs Larisa?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and Larisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 0.80 for Larisa, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs Larisa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 20 outings, Panathinaikos have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 9W 5D 6L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Larisa's form line: 4W 7D 9L from 20 games, 0.95 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Larisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Panathinaikos are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Larisa.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Panathinaikos have posted 2.22 PPG from 9 outings (6W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — Panathinaikos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Larisa have gone 2W 3D 4L from 9 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Larisa are on 0.95 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Blended
Larisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panathinaikos and Larisa in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 9W 5D 6L in their last 20 games (1.60 PPG), while Larisa have gone 4W 7D 9L in their last 20 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or Larisa away?
Panathinaikos's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 2.22 PPG; Larisa away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or Larisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Larisa in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Panathinaikos
2
Draws
0
Larisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Larisa?
From 2 meetings on record, Panathinaikos have won 0, Larisa have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and Larisa last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Panathinaikos 1-1 Larisa.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Larisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panathinaikos 56%, Larisa 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Panathinaikos) and 44% (Larisa).
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Larisa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / Larisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panathinaikos play Larisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 44% of Larisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panathinaikos vs Larisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Panathinaikos's recent games and 44% of Larisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panathinaikos and Larisa tend to score early?
Panathinaikos have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Larisa in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panathinaikos and Larisa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos and Larisa finished level at 1-1 at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.92 xG and Larisa 0.80 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Panathinaikos fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.27 / defence 0.82 against Larisa attack 0.86 / defence 1.12, drawn from 45/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 64% | Draw 22% | Larisa 15%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 50%, Larisa 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Larisa's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.