Olympiakos Piraeus 6-0 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki plays host to Olympiakos Piraeus versus Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 5 March 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
Levadiakos have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Olympiakos Piraeus. A 1.80 PPG lead over Levadiakos (2.40 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Olympiakos Piraeus lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2022, ended 1–0 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 42% versus Levadiakos 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Olympiakos Piraeus 42% | Levadiakos 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 2.21 xG and Levadiakos 0.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.526 / defence 0.711 | Levadiakos attack 0.692 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.162 / away 1.001. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.526 — their λ of 2.21 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Levadiakos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing Olympiakos Piraeus's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating of 0.711 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 24 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 75% | Draw 21% | Levadiakos 5%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.33 | Draw 4.76 | Levadiakos 20.00. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (75%) — a 70pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 40% | Levadiakos 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Mar 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 75% | Draw 21% | Levadiakos 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 37% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 2.21 / Levadiakos 0.49 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.526 / def 0.711 | Levadiakos attack 0.692 / def 1.243 | league avg home 1.162 / away 1.001 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.49
Levadiakos xG
37%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 March 2023 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos?
Olympiakos Piraeus 6 - 0 Levadiakos.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 75% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 5% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos?
Record (1 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 1W | Draws 0 | Levadiakos 0W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Levadiakos (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus's attacking strength (1.53x league average) is weighed against Levadiakos's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.21. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (0.69x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.49.
These ratings are built from 50/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.9%), 3-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
75%
1.34
21%
4.83
5%
21.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
3 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.70
0.49
Levadiakos xG
1.34
75%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
21.55
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
61%
1.64
11%
9.07
Win to Nil
46%
2.19
1%
195.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 7.3 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 16.4 | 8.1 | 2.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 12.0 | 5.9 | 1.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.49 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Olympiakos Piraeus come into this having played 24 games, going 14W 8D 2L for 2.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Levadiakos sit at 0.58 PPG from 24 outings (2W 8D 14L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Olympiakos Piraeus's home form reads 8W 3D 1L across 12 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Levadiakos have taken 0.25 points per game from 12 outings (0W 3D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.54 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 0.50 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 14W 8D 2L in their last 24 games (2.08 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 2W 8D 14L in their last 24 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Levadiakos away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.25 PPG; Levadiakos away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Levadiakos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their recent games, Levadiakos in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 6-0 on 5 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
2
Draws
0
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos?
From 6 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, Levadiakos have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Levadiakos 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Levadiakos see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 42%, Levadiakos 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 50% (Levadiakos).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Levadiakos in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 33% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 50% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Olympiakos Piraeus run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Levadiakos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Levadiakos 6-0 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 2.21 xG and Levadiakos 0.49 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.53 / defence 0.71 against Levadiakos attack 0.69 / defence 1.24, drawn from 50/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 75% | Draw 21% | Levadiakos 5%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 75%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 42%, Levadiakos 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and duly kept one.
Levadiakos's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 58% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 0.58. Form held, and they took the win. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm. Levadiakos (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.