Olympiakos Piraeus 2-0 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Olympiakos Piraeus take on Atromitos.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Atromitos travel to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki to take on Olympiakos Piraeus. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 September 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Olympiakos Piraeus stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Olympiakos Piraeus are significantly better at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Atromitos have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Atromitos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Atromitos away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Olympiakos Piraeus have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 6 past contests while Atromitos have managed just 0 wins.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Olympiakos Piraeus a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Olympiakos Piraeus in-play tendencies (38 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games).
Atromitos in-play tendencies (38 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 55% versus Atromitos 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 63% | Atromitos 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.24 xG and Atromitos 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.036 / defence 0.869 | Atromitos attack 1.011 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.244. Data: 31 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 31 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 36% | Draw 36% | Atromitos 28%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.78 | Draw 2.78 | Atromitos 3.57. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 50% | Atromitos 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 36% | Draw 36% | Atromitos 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 51% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.24 / Atromitos 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.036 / def 0.869 | Atromitos attack 1.011 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Atromitos xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos?
Olympiakos Piraeus 2 - 0 Atromitos.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 36% chance of winning, Atromitos a 28% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos?
Record (6 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 3W | Draws 3 | Atromitos 0W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Atromitos (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 1.04x the league average against Atromitos's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Olympiakos Piraeus's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.81
36%
2.78
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.33
1.09
Atromitos xG
2.81
36%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
12%
8.38
8%
12.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 1.09 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Olympiakos Piraeus's recent record stands at 23W 7D 8L from 38 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Atromitos, meanwhile, have gone 9W 15D 14L across 38 games — 1.11 PPG, with D-D-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Atromitos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Atromitos heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Olympiakos Piraeus have managed 12W 2D 3L from 17 games — 2.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atromitos's away record stands at 3W 7D 7L across 17 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.18 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atromitos in 63%.
Last 38 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
Atromitos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 23W 7D 8L in their last 38 games (2.00 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 9W 15D 14L in their last 38 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Atromitos away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.24 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Atromitos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Atromitos in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Olympiakos Piraeus's record when hosting Atromitos specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Olympiakos Piraeus
3
Draws
0
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 7, Atromitos have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Atromitos 0-2 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 65%, Atromitos 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Olympiakos Piraeus and 53% for Atromitos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Atromitos in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Atromitos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Olympiakos Piraeus's games and 65% of Atromitos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Olympiakos Piraeus's matches and 53% of Atromitos's.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Olympiakos Piraeus cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Atromitos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Atromitos 2-0 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.24 xG and Atromitos 1.09 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Atromitos landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.04 / defence 0.87 against Atromitos attack 1.01 / defence 0.97, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 36% | Draw 36% | Atromitos 28%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 63%, Atromitos 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (38 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Atromitos's trading profile (38 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.