OFI 3-2 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Panathinaikos at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OFI vs Panathinaikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 21 as OFI welcome Panathinaikos to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 2 February 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
OFI — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI's home record at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panathinaikos have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panathinaikos's away record: 2W 1D 5L from 8 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.88 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Panathinaikos — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, OFI have won 0, Panathinaikos 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (19 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Panathinaikos in-play and half-time data (19 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 58% versus Panathinaikos 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 53% | Panathinaikos 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.20 xG and Panathinaikos 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.051 / defence 1.477 | Panathinaikos attack 0.755 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 0.952 / away 1.151. Panathinaikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.204 — this is suppressing OFI's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 OFI games / 19 Panathinaikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 35% | Draw 27% | Panathinaikos 38%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Panathinaikos 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panathinaikos are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: OFI 70% | Panathinaikos 38%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Feb 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 35% | Draw 27% | Panathinaikos 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG OFI 1.20 / Panathinaikos 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.051 / def 1.477 | Panathinaikos attack 0.755 / def 1.204 | league avg home 0.952 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Panathinaikos xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Panathinaikos kick off?
OFI vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 15:15 on Wednesday 2 February 2022 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Panathinaikos?
OFI 3 - 2 Panathinaikos.
Where is OFI vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Panathinaikos part of?
OFI vs Panathinaikos is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 35% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both OFI and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Panathinaikos?
Record (1 meetings): OFI 0W | Draws 1 | Panathinaikos 0W.
What form are OFI and Panathinaikos in?
OFI (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Panathinaikos (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates OFI's attack at 1.05x the league average against Panathinaikos's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Panathinaikos's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
35%
2.89
27%
3.70
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
OFI xG
Total xG
2.49
1.28
Panathinaikos xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
10%
10.41
11%
8.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.7 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are OFI and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for OFI and 1.28 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
OFI's recent record stands at 6W 7D 6L from 19 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panathinaikos, meanwhile, have gone 9W 3D 7L across 19 games — 1.58 PPG, with W-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: OFI on 1.32 PPG, Panathinaikos on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, OFI have managed 2W 3D 3L from 8 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Panathinaikos's away record stands at 2W 1D 5L across 8 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Panathinaikos's season.
The Goals Picture
OFI are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.47 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Panathinaikos in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Panathinaikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 6W 7D 6L in their last 19 games (1.32 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 9W 3D 7L in their last 19 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Panathinaikos away?
OFI's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.12 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 0.88 PPG.
Have OFI or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between OFI and Panathinaikos runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 4 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Panathinaikos have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Dec 2023, when Panathinaikos won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting Panathinaikos specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
OFI
3
Draws
6
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Panathinaikos?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 1, Panathinaikos have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2026, when Panathinaikos 4-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Panathinaikos?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 75%, Panathinaikos 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (OFI) and 38% (Panathinaikos).
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Panathinaikos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of OFI's games and 38% of Panathinaikos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OFI vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of OFI's recent games and 38% of Panathinaikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as OFI defy the odds to beat Panathinaikos 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat Panathinaikos 3-2 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.20 xG and Panathinaikos 1.28 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. OFI beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.05 / defence 1.48 against Panathinaikos attack 0.76 / defence 1.20, drawn from 20/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 35% | Draw 27% | Panathinaikos 38%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual OFI win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 53%, Panathinaikos 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (19 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (19 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.32 PPG, Panathinaikos 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OFI win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.