OFI 0-1 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs Panathinaikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 8 as OFI welcome Panathinaikos to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 October 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
OFI — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
OFI's home record at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panathinaikos have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Panathinaikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Panathinaikos's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, OFI have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, OFI have won 1, Panathinaikos 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Panathinaikos in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 58% versus Panathinaikos 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 55% | Panathinaikos 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.41 xG and Panathinaikos 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.202 / defence 1.148 | Panathinaikos attack 0.884 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.228. Data: 33 OFI games / 33 Panathinaikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 38% | Draw 32% | Panathinaikos 30%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Panathinaikos 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, OFI are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: OFI 70% | Panathinaikos 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 38% | Draw 32% | Panathinaikos 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG OFI 1.41 / Panathinaikos 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.202 / def 1.148 | Panathinaikos attack 0.884 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: OFI (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Panathinaikos xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Panathinaikos kick off?
OFI vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Panathinaikos?
OFI 0 - 1 Panathinaikos.
Where is OFI vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Panathinaikos part of?
OFI vs Panathinaikos is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 38% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both OFI and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Panathinaikos?
Record (6 meetings): OFI 1W | Draws 3 | Panathinaikos 2W.
What form are OFI and Panathinaikos in?
OFI (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Panathinaikos (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about OFI vs Panathinaikos?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates OFI's attack at 1.20x the league average against Panathinaikos's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Panathinaikos's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
38%
2.66
32%
3.08
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
OFI xG
Total xG
2.66
1.25
Panathinaikos xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
11%
9.27
7%
13.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are OFI and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for OFI and 1.25 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
OFI's recent record stands at 10W 16D 14L from 40 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Panathinaikos, meanwhile, have gone 20W 10D 10L across 40 games — 1.75 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Panathinaikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Panathinaikos by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over OFI heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, OFI have managed 7W 7D 5L from 19 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Panathinaikos's away record stands at 8W 5D 6L across 19 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
OFI are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.92 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Panathinaikos in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Early Season
Panathinaikos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 10W 16D 14L in their last 40 games (1.15 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 20W 10D 10L in their last 40 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Panathinaikos away?
Panathinaikos's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.47 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 1.53 PPG.
Have OFI or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between OFI and Panathinaikos runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 4 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Panathinaikos have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Dec 2023, when Panathinaikos won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting Panathinaikos specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
OFI
3
Draws
6
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Panathinaikos?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 1, Panathinaikos have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2026, when Panathinaikos 4-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Panathinaikos?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 58%, Panathinaikos 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (OFI) and 68% (Panathinaikos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Panathinaikos in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Panathinaikos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of OFI's games and 53% of Panathinaikos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OFI vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of OFI's matches and 68% of Panathinaikos's.
Do OFI and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Panathinaikos defy the odds to beat OFI 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat OFI 0-1 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.41 xG and Panathinaikos 1.25 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. OFI fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.20 / defence 1.15 against Panathinaikos attack 0.88 / defence 1.03, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 38% | Draw 32% | Panathinaikos 30%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Panathinaikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 55%, Panathinaikos 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.