OFI 2-3 Ionikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs Ionikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Relegation Round - 1 sees Ionikos travel to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis to take on OFI. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 March 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, OFI stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI's home record at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ionikos — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ionikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ionikos's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: OFI 1.40 PPG, Ionikos 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. OFI register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Ionikos in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for OFI, 0 for Ionikos and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Ionikos in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 54% versus Ionikos 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 50% | Ionikos 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.53 xG and Ionikos 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.168 / defence 1.381 | Ionikos attack 0.881 / defence 1.323. League average goals — home 0.990 / away 1.049. Ionikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.323 — this is suppressing OFI's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 OFI games / 26 Ionikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 43% | Draw 25% | Ionikos 32%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Ionikos 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: OFI 70% | Ionikos 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Ionikos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 43% | Draw 25% | Ionikos 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG OFI 1.53 / Ionikos 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.168 / def 1.381 | Ionikos attack 0.881 / def 1.323 | league avg home 0.990 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: OFI (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Ionikos xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Ionikos kick off?
OFI vs Ionikos kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Ionikos?
OFI 2 - 3 Ionikos.
Where is OFI vs Ionikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Ionikos part of?
OFI vs Ionikos is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Ionikos?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 43% chance of winning, Ionikos a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Ionikos?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both OFI and Ionikos will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Ionikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Ionikos?
Record (2 meetings): OFI 1W | Draws 1 | Ionikos 0W.
What form are OFI and Ionikos in?
OFI (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Ionikos (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
OFI's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Ionikos's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Ionikos's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
43%
2.32
25%
3.96
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
OFI xG
Total xG
2.81
1.28
Ionikos xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
12%
8.31
7%
14.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.8 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Ionikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are OFI and Ionikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for OFI and 1.28 for Ionikos, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Ionikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 26 outings, OFI have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 9W 10D 7L record — W-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ionikos's form line: 6W 8D 12L from 26 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-L. The sample for Ionikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, OFI are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ionikos.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.54 PPG from 13 outings (5W 5D 3L).
On the road, Ionikos have gone 2W 4D 7L from 13 away games — 0.77 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
OFI are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Ionikos are on 1.00 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Ionikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Ionikos in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 9W 10D 7L in their last 26 games (1.42 PPG), while Ionikos have gone 6W 8D 12L in their last 26 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Ionikos away?
OFI's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.54 PPG; Ionikos away: 0.77 PPG.
Have OFI or Ionikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Ionikos in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between OFI and Ionikos runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
OFI's record when hosting Ionikos specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
OFI
2
Draws
2
Ionikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Ionikos?
From 6 meetings on record, OFI have won 2, Ionikos have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Ionikos last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when OFI 2-2 Ionikos.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 69%, Ionikos 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (OFI) and 46% (Ionikos).
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Ionikos in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Ionikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Ionikos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of OFI's games and 54% of Ionikos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OFI vs Ionikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of OFI's recent games and 46% of Ionikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Ionikos tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Ionikos in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ionikos defy the odds to beat OFI 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ionikos beat OFI 2-3 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Relegation Round - 1, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.53 xG and Ionikos 1.28 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Ionikos outscored their 1.28 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.17 / defence 1.38 against Ionikos attack 0.88 / defence 1.32, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 43% | Draw 25% | Ionikos 32%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Ionikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 50%, Ionikos 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Ionikos's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, OFI arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Ionikos winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. OFI (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ionikos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.