Levadiakos 0-2 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levadiakos vs PAOK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAOK make the trip to Stadio Levadias to face Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 October 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 0W 4D 2L from 6 games (0.67 PPG). Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Levadias, Levadiakos have gone 0W 2D 1L this season (3 games, 0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
PAOK have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. PAOK have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAOK's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
PAOK arrive in superior form — a 1.83 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 0.67) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Levadiakos lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Jan 2023, ended 2–3 with PAOK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Levadiakos — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
PAOK — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 50% versus PAOK 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 33% | PAOK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 0.75 xG and PAOK 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.663 / defence 1.163 | PAOK attack 1.359 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.257. Levadiakos's attack strength of 0.663 is below the league average — the 0.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.359 — the away xG of 1.99 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 6 Levadiakos games / 32 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 11% | Draw 26% | PAOK 64%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 9.09 | Draw 3.85 | PAOK 1.56. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (64%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Levadiakos 33% | PAOK 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Levadias • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 11% | Draw 26% | PAOK 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 48% | xG Levadiakos 0.75 / PAOK 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.663 / def 1.163 | PAOK attack 1.359 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.237 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: PAOK (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.99
PAOK xG
48%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs PAOK kick off?
Levadiakos vs PAOK kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Stadio Levadias.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs PAOK?
Levadiakos 0 - 2 PAOK.
Where is Levadiakos vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Levadias.
What competition is Levadiakos vs PAOK part of?
Levadiakos vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 11% chance of winning, PAOK a 64% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Levadiakos and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and PAOK?
Record (2 meetings): Levadiakos 0W | Draws 1 | PAOK 1W.
What form are Levadiakos and PAOK in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 0W-4D-2L in 6 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. PAOK (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Levadiakos's attack rating (0.66) and PAOK's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.36x) against Levadiakos's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.99.
These ratings are built from 6/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 1-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
11%
9.43
26%
3.91
64%
1.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.8%
Away win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.74
1.99
PAOK xG
9.43
11%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
1.57
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
14%
7.29
47%
2.12
Win to Nil
1%
68.74
30%
3.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 12.9 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.99 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs PAOK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Levadiakos come into this having played 6 games, going 0W 4D 2L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, PAOK sit at 2.17 PPG from 6 outings (4W 1D 1L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for PAOK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Levadiakos are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.83 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Last 6 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Early Season
PAOK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and PAOK in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 0W 4D 2L in their last 6 games (0.67 PPG), while PAOK have gone 4W 1D 1L in their last 6 (2.17 PPG).
Have Levadiakos or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levadiakos have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, PAOK in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: PAOK have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won 3-0 on 15 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Levadiakos
1
Draws
5
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and PAOK?
From 6 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 0, PAOK have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when PAOK 3-0 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Levadiakos see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
PAOK see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 50%, PAOK 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Levadiakos) and 50% (PAOK).
On the defensive side: PAOK in 33%; Levadiakos have failed to score in 50% of games; PAOK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 50% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Levadiakos's recent games and 50% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
PAOK cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Levadiakos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Levadiakos 0-2 at Stadio Levadias, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 0.75 xG and PAOK 1.99 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.66 / defence 1.16 against PAOK attack 1.36 / defence 0.92, drawn from 6/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 11% | Draw 26% | PAOK 64%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 33%, PAOK 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PAOK's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was vindicated by the result. PAOK conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.