Levadiakos 3-2 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levadiakos at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levadiakos vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Conference League Group - 5 sees OFI travel to Levadia Stadium to take on Levadiakos. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 13 May 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levadiakos stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Levadiakos's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Levadia Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Levadiakos are significantly better at Levadia Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, OFI have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Levadiakos 1.10 PPG, OFI 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Levadiakos, 3 for OFI and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with OFI winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Levadiakos trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
OFI trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 58% versus OFI 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 58% | OFI 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 2.04 xG and OFI 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 1.256 / defence 1.066 | OFI attack 1.082 / defence 1.242. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.066. Levadiakos carry an above-average attack strength of 1.256 — their λ of 2.04 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. OFI bring a strong defensive rating of 1.242 — this is suppressing Levadiakos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Levadiakos games / 52 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 55% | Draw 24% | OFI 21%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | OFI 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Levadiakos (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Levadiakos are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 70% | OFI 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Conference League Group - 5 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 13 May 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 55% | Draw 24% | OFI 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Levadiakos 2.04 / OFI 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 1.256 / def 1.066 | OFI attack 1.082 / def 1.242 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.23
OFI xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs OFI kick off?
Levadiakos vs OFI kicked off at 15:00 on Wednesday 13 May 2026 at Levadia Stadium.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs OFI?
Levadiakos 3 - 2 OFI.
Where is Levadiakos vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs OFI part of?
Levadiakos vs OFI is a Conference League Group - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 55% chance of winning, OFI a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Levadiakos and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and OFI?
Record (8 meetings): Levadiakos 2W | Draws 3 | OFI 3W.
What form are Levadiakos and OFI in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. OFI (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Levadiakos's attack rating (1.26) and OFI's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 2.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Levadiakos's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
55%
1.83
24%
4.11
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
3.26
1.23
OFI xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
13%
7.66
Win to Nil
16%
6.26
3%
36.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.23 for OFI, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs OFI?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Levadiakos come into this having played 62 games, going 27W 16D 19L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, OFI sit at 1.19 PPG from 62 outings (21W 11D 30L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Levadiakos on 1.56 PPG, OFI on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Levadiakos's home form reads 15W 7D 9L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, OFI have taken 1.10 points per game from 31 outings (9W 7D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levadiakos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Levadiakos are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.26 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Current Season
OFI
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and OFI in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 27W 16D 19L in their last 62 games (1.56 PPG), while OFI have gone 21W 11D 30L in their last 62 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or OFI away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.68 PPG; OFI away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2025, when Levadiakos won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Levadiakos's record when hosting OFI specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Levadiakos
3
Draws
3
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and OFI?
From 9 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 3, OFI have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Levadiakos 3-2 OFI.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 61%, OFI 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Levadiakos and 61% for OFI. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: OFI in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play OFI?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Levadiakos's games and 55% of OFI's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Levadiakos vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Levadiakos's matches and 61% of OFI's.
Do Levadiakos and OFI tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, OFI in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Levadiakos edge out OFI 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos beat OFI 3-2 at Levadia Stadium, Conference League Group - 5, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 2.04 xG and OFI 1.23 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Levadiakos beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 1.26 / defence 1.07 against OFI attack 1.08 / defence 1.24, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 55% | Draw 24% | OFI 21%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 58%, OFI 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
OFI's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levadiakos 1.56 PPG, OFI 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levadiakos win broke the near-deadlock. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm. OFI (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.