Levadiakos 0-0 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Levadiakos at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levadiakos vs Lamia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Levadiakos welcome Lamia to Stadio Levadias in Super League 1 (Relegation Round - 5). Kick-off is Monday 28 April 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Levadiakos — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Levadiakos at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lamia stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Lamia have posted 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Levadiakos carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Levadiakos have won 1, Lamia 1, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 10 Feb 2025, ended Levadiakos 2–0 Lamia — a Levadiakos win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Levadiakos in-play tendencies (last 30 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Lamia in-play tendencies (last 30 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 53% versus Lamia 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 50% | Lamia 37%). Note also that Lamia surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Levadiakos recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 62% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.67 xG and Lamia 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.927 / defence 1.182 | Lamia attack 0.673 / defence 1.415. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. Lamia's defence rating of 1.415 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Levadiakos's projected output up. Lamia's attack rating of 0.673 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Data: built from Levadiakos's last 26 games and Lamia's last 52.
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 56% | Draw 24% | Lamia 20%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 1.78 | Draw 4.12 | Lamia 5.13. The model has a clear lean to Levadiakos (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Levadiakos at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Levadiakos 60% (last 10 home games) | Lamia 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Stadio Levadias • Kick-off: Monday 28 April 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 56% | Draw 24% | Lamia 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Levadiakos 1.67 / Lamia 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.927 / def 1.182 | Lamia attack 0.673 / def 1.415 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Lamia xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Levadiakos vs Lamia FAQs
What time does Levadiakos vs Lamia kick off?
Levadiakos vs Lamia kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 28 April 2025 at Stadio Levadias.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Lamia?
Levadiakos 0 - 0 Lamia.
Where is Levadiakos vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Levadias.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Lamia part of?
Levadiakos vs Lamia is a Super League 1 fixture (Relegation Round - 5) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 56% chance of winning, Lamia a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Levadiakos and Lamia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Levadiakos vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Levadiakos's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Lamia's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Levadiakos's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Levadiakos's last 26 games and Lamia's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
56%
1.78
24%
4.12
20%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.53
0.87
Lamia xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
5.13
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
4%
27.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 11.5 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Levadiakos vs Lamia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Levadiakos and 0.87 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Lamia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Levadiakos come into this having played 30 games, going 9W 10D 11L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Lamia sit at 0.53 PPG from 30 outings (3W 7D 20L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Levadiakos carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Lamia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Levadiakos's home form reads 4W 4D 6L across their last 14 home games, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Lamia have taken 0.29 points per game from their last 14 away games (0W 4D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levadiakos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Levadiakos are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.53 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Current Season
Lamia
Current Season
Levadiakos (Home) vs Lamia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Levadiakos
Current Season
Lamia
Current Season
❓ Levadiakos vs Lamia Form FAQs
What form are Levadiakos and Lamia in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 9W 10D 11L in their last 30 games (1.23 PPG), while Lamia have gone 3W 7D 20L in their last 30 (0.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Lamia away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.14 PPG; Lamia away: 0.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2022. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 5 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Levadiakos's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Levadiakos
4
Draws
1
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Levadiakos vs Lamia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Lamia?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Levadiakos have won 2, Lamia have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Lamia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 May 2025: Lamia 2-3 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Lamia?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Levadiakos see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 50%, Lamia 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Levadiakos) and 36% (Lamia).
On the defensive side: Levadiakos have failed to score in 36% of games; Lamia in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Levadiakos vs Lamia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Levadiakos and Lamia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 36% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Levadiakos and Lamia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Levadiakos's recent games and 36% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and Lamia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 71% of Lamia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Levadiakos's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos and Lamia finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Levadias, Relegation Round - 5, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.67 xG and Lamia 0.87 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Levadiakos fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Lamia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.93 / defence 1.18 against Lamia attack 0.67 / defence 1.42, drawn from 26/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 56% | Draw 24% | Lamia 20%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 50%, Lamia 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lamia's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Levadiakos arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.53. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Levadiakos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Lamia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.