Larisa 2-5 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Larisa at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Larisa vs Volos NFC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Volos NFC travel to AEL FC Arena to take on Larisa. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 October 2025, 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Larisa stand at 0W 4D 1L from 5 Super League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Larisa have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Volos NFC — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Volos NFC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Volos NFC have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Larisa 0.80 PPG, Volos NFC 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Larisa trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 40% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games.
Volos NFC trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Larisa 80% and Volos NFC 40% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Larisa 20% | Volos NFC 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Larisa 1.18 xG and Volos NFC 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Larisa attack 0.840 / defence 1.058 | Volos NFC attack 0.859 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.144. Data: 5 Larisa games / 31 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Larisa 38% | Draw 30% | Volos NFC 31%. Fair-value odds: Larisa 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Volos NFC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Larisa as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Larisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Larisa 80% | Volos NFC 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Larisa vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: AEL FC Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Oct 2025, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Larisa 38% | Draw 30% | Volos NFC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Larisa 1.18 / Volos NFC 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Larisa attack 0.840 / def 1.058 | Volos NFC attack 0.859 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Larisa (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Larisa xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Volos NFC xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Larisa vs Volos NFC kick off?
Larisa vs Volos NFC kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 4 October 2025 at AEL FC Arena.
What was the final score in Larisa vs Volos NFC?
Larisa 2 - 5 Volos NFC.
Where is Larisa vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at AEL FC Arena.
What competition is Larisa vs Volos NFC part of?
Larisa vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Larisa vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Larisa a 38% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Larisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Larisa vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Larisa and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Larisa vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Larisa and Volos NFC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Larisa and Volos NFC in?
Larisa (all comps): 0W-4D-1L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Volos NFC (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Larisa's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Volos NFC's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Larisa's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Larisa Win
38%
2.61
30%
3.29
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Larisa xG
Total xG
2.22
1.04
Volos NFC xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
14%
7.39
10%
10.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 11.3 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Larisa vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Larisa and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Larisa and 1.04 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Larisa vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Larisa's recent record stands at 0W 4D 1L from 5 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Larisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Volos NFC, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 3L across 5 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Volos NFC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Larisa on 0.80 PPG, Volos NFC on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Larisa are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Larisa have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games.
Last 5 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Larisa
Early Season
Volos NFC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Larisa and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Larisa have gone 0W 4D 1L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 (1.20 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Larisa and Volos NFC runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Larisa
0
Draws
1
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Larisa and Volos NFC?
From 2 meetings on record, Larisa have won 1, Volos NFC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Larisa and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Volos NFC 0-2 Larisa.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Larisa see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Volos NFC see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Larisa 80%, Volos NFC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Larisa and 40% for Volos NFC.
On the defensive side: Volos NFC in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Larisa home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Larisa play Volos NFC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Larisa's games and 40% of Volos NFC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Larisa vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Larisa's recent games and 40% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Volos NFC run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Larisa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat Larisa 2-5 at AEL FC Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Larisa 1.18 xG and Volos NFC 1.04 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Larisa beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Volos NFC outscored their 1.04 projection by 4.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Larisa attack 0.84 / defence 1.06 against Volos NFC attack 0.86 / defence 1.03, drawn from 5/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Larisa 38% | Draw 30% | Volos NFC 31%, with Larisa to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Volos NFC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Larisa 20%, Volos NFC 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Larisa's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Volos NFC's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Larisa 0.80 PPG, Volos NFC 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Volos NFC win broke the near-deadlock. Larisa scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Volos NFC scored 5 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.