Larisa 1-1 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Larisa vs PAOK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Larisa and PAOK meet at AEL FC Arena in Super League 1, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Larisa's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Larisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Larisa's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at AEL FC Arena this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
PAOK have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, PAOK have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, PAOK are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Larisa, 1 for PAOK and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with PAOK winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Larisa — key trading statistics (21 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
PAOK — key trading statistics (21 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Larisa 52% versus PAOK 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Larisa 38% | PAOK 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Larisa 0.82 xG and PAOK 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Larisa attack 0.731 / defence 1.317 | PAOK attack 1.245 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.159. Larisa's attack strength of 0.731 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.245 — the away xG of 1.90 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 21 Larisa games / 46 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Larisa 15% | Draw 23% | PAOK 62%. Fair-value odds: Larisa 6.67 | Draw 4.35 | PAOK 1.61. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Larisa 50% | PAOK 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Larisa vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: AEL FC Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Feb 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Larisa 15% | Draw 23% | PAOK 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 48% | xG Larisa 0.82 / PAOK 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: Larisa attack 0.731 / def 1.317 | PAOK attack 1.245 / def 0.835 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: PAOK (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Larisa xG
Expected Goals
1.90
PAOK xG
48%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Larisa vs PAOK kick off?
Larisa vs PAOK kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 22 February 2026 at AEL FC Arena.
What was the final score in Larisa vs PAOK?
Larisa 1 - 1 PAOK.
Where is Larisa vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at AEL FC Arena.
What competition is Larisa vs PAOK part of?
Larisa vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Larisa vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Larisa a 15% chance of winning, PAOK a 62% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Larisa vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Larisa and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Larisa vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Larisa and PAOK?
Record (1 meetings): Larisa 0W | Draws 0 | PAOK 1W.
What form are Larisa and PAOK in?
Larisa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. PAOK (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Larisa's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against PAOK's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.25x) against Larisa's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.90.
These ratings are built from 21/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.6%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
15%
6.62
23%
4.44
62%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.9%
Away win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Larisa xG
Total xG
2.72
1.90
PAOK xG
6.62
15%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
1.60
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
15%
6.69
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
2%
44.28
27%
3.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 12.5 | 11.9 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Larisa vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Larisa and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Larisa and 1.90 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Larisa vs PAOK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Larisa's recent record stands at 4W 8D 9L from 21 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Larisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK, meanwhile, have gone 15W 4D 2L across 21 games — 2.33 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours PAOK by 1.38 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Larisa heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Larisa have managed 2W 2D 5L from 9 games — 0.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAOK's away record stands at 5W 2D 2L across 9 trips, a 1.89 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PAOK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Larisa are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 2.00 scored and 0.62 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 62% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Larisa
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Larisa and PAOK in coming into this match?
Larisa have gone 4W 8D 9L in their last 21 games (0.95 PPG), while PAOK have gone 15W 4D 2L in their last 21 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Larisa at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Larisa at home: 0.89 PPG; PAOK away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Larisa or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Larisa have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, PAOK in 62%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Larisa
1
Draws
1
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Larisa and PAOK?
From 2 meetings on record, Larisa have won 0, PAOK have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Larisa and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Larisa 1-1 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between Larisa and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Larisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Larisa 44%, PAOK 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Larisa) and 67% (PAOK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Larisa keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; PAOK in 44%; Larisa have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Larisa home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Larisa play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Larisa's recent matches and 44% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Larisa vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Larisa's matches and 67% of PAOK's.
Do Larisa and PAOK tend to score early?
Larisa have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, PAOK in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Larisa and PAOK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AEL FC Arena, Regular Season - 22, as Larisa and PAOK drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Larisa 0.82 xG and PAOK 1.90 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. PAOK landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Larisa attack 0.73 / defence 1.32 against PAOK attack 1.25 / defence 0.83, drawn from 21/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Larisa 15% | Draw 23% | PAOK 62%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Larisa 38%, PAOK 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Larisa's trading profile (21 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
PAOK's trading profile (21 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Larisa (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.