Lamia 1-3 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panetolikos at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamia vs Panetolikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Relegation Round - 9 as Lamia welcome Panetolikos to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 May 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Lamia have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Lamia at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Panetolikos stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Panetolikos's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lamia at 0.80 PPG versus Panetolikos's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Lamia have won 5, Panetolikos 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Panetolikos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Lamia trading profile (67 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Panetolikos trading profile (67 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 51% versus Panetolikos 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 57% | Panetolikos 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 0.97 xG and Panetolikos 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.815 / defence 1.095 | Panetolikos attack 0.817 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. Data: 52 Lamia games / 52 Panetolikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 34% | Draw 31% | Panetolikos 35%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Panetolikos 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Panetolikos at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panetolikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Lamia 40% | Panetolikos 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 9 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 34% | Draw 31% | Panetolikos 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Lamia 0.97 / Panetolikos 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.815 / def 1.095 | Panetolikos attack 0.817 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Panetolikos xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Panetolikos kick off?
Lamia vs Panetolikos kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Panetolikos?
Lamia 1 - 3 Panetolikos.
Where is Lamia vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Panetolikos part of?
Lamia vs Panetolikos is a Relegation Round - 9 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 34% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Lamia and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Panetolikos?
Record (9 meetings): Lamia 5W | Draws 1 | Panetolikos 3W.
What form are Lamia and Panetolikos in?
Lamia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Panetolikos (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lamia's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Panetolikos's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Panetolikos's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
34%
2.93
31%
3.19
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Lamia xG
Total xG
1.94
0.98
Panetolikos xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
13%
7.79
13%
7.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 14.0 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Lamia and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Lamia and 0.98 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 67 outings, Lamia have picked up 0.76 PPG on a 12W 15D 40L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Panetolikos's form line: 20W 18D 29L from 67 games, 1.16 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamia on 0.76 PPG, Panetolikos on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lamia have posted 0.88 PPG from 34 outings (8W 6D 20L).
On the road, Panetolikos have gone 8W 13D 13L from 34 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Lamia are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 0.91 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Current Season
Panetolikos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 12W 15D 40L in their last 67 games (0.76 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 20W 18D 29L in their last 67 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Panetolikos away?
Panetolikos's away record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.88 PPG; Panetolikos away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Lamia or Panetolikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Panetolikos in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lamia and Panetolikos runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Panetolikos have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Lamia's record when hosting Panetolikos specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lamia
1
Draws
4
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Panetolikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 5, Panetolikos have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Lamia 1-3 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Panetolikos?
Lamia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 53%, Panetolikos 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Lamia) and 35% (Panetolikos).
On the defensive side: Lamia have failed to score in 38% of games; Panetolikos in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Panetolikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Lamia's recent matches and 47% of Panetolikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Lamia's recent games and 35% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and Panetolikos tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Panetolikos in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panetolikos cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panetolikos beat Lamia 1-3 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Relegation Round - 9, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 0.97 xG and Panetolikos 0.98 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Panetolikos outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.81 / defence 1.09 against Panetolikos attack 0.82 / defence 0.94, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 34% | Draw 31% | Panetolikos 35%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 57%, Panetolikos 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Panetolikos's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamia 0.76 PPG, Panetolikos 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. Lamia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Panetolikos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.