Lamia 2-1 Ionikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ionikos at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamia vs Ionikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 18 as Lamia welcome Ionikos to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 January 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Lamia — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamia's form when playing at home: 0W 3D 5L across 8 games at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias this term (0.38 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Ionikos have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ionikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Ionikos have posted 1W 2D 6L from 9 away outings — 0.56 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Lamia) versus 0.90 (Ionikos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Lamia, 0 for Ionikos and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Lamia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lamia in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Ionikos in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 50% versus Ionikos 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 50% | Ionikos 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.07 xG and Ionikos 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.783 / defence 1.454 | Ionikos attack 0.647 / defence 1.294. League average goals — home 1.053 / away 1.182. Lamia's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ionikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.294 — this is suppressing Lamia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Lamia games / 16 Ionikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 34% | Draw 29% | Ionikos 36%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Ionikos 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ionikos at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ionikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lamia 62% | Ionikos 33%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Ionikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 34% | Draw 29% | Ionikos 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Lamia 1.07 / Ionikos 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.783 / def 1.454 | Ionikos attack 0.647 / def 1.294 | league avg home 1.053 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Ionikos (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Ionikos xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Ionikos kick off?
Lamia vs Ionikos kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Ionikos?
Lamia 2 - 1 Ionikos.
Where is Lamia vs Ionikos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Ionikos part of?
Lamia vs Ionikos is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Ionikos?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 34% chance of winning, Ionikos a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ionikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Ionikos?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Lamia and Ionikos will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Ionikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Ionikos?
Record (1 meetings): Lamia 1W | Draws 0 | Ionikos 0W.
What form are Lamia and Ionikos in?
Lamia (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Ionikos (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lamia's attack at 0.78x the league average against Ionikos's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ionikos's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ionikos Win
34%
2.92
29%
3.41
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.18
1.11
Ionikos xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
11%
8.87
13%
7.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 12.6 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Ionikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Lamia and Ionikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Lamia and 1.11 for Ionikos, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Ionikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lamia come into this having played 16 games, going 2W 5D 9L for 0.69 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ionikos sit at 0.88 PPG from 16 outings (3W 5D 8L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Ionikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamia on 0.69 PPG, Ionikos on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lamia's home form reads 0W 3D 5L across 8 games on their own ground, a 0.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Ionikos have taken 0.62 points per game from 8 outings (1W 2D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Lamia are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Ionikos are on 0.81 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
Ionikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Ionikos in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 2W 5D 9L in their last 16 games (0.69 PPG), while Ionikos have gone 3W 5D 8L in their last 16 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Ionikos away?
Ionikos's away record (0.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.38 PPG; Ionikos away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lamia and Ionikos runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lamia's record when hosting Ionikos specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Lamia
2
Draws
2
Ionikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Ionikos?
From 6 meetings on record, Lamia have won 2, Ionikos have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Ionikos last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2023, when Ionikos 2-2 Lamia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 62%, Ionikos 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Lamia) and 38% (Ionikos).
On the defensive side: Lamia have failed to score in 38% of games; Ionikos in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Ionikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Ionikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Lamia's recent matches and 38% of Ionikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs Ionikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Lamia's recent games and 38% of Ionikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and Ionikos tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ionikos in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lamia defy the odds to beat Ionikos 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamia beat Ionikos 2-1 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.07 xG and Ionikos 1.11 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Lamia beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.78 / defence 1.45 against Ionikos attack 0.65 / defence 1.29, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 34% | Draw 29% | Ionikos 36%, with Ionikos to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Lamia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 50%, Ionikos 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Ionikos's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamia 0.69 PPG, Ionikos 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamia win broke the near-deadlock. Lamia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.