Kifisia 0-0 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Kifisia at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kifisia vs Asteras Tripolis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Relegation Group - 3 as Kifisia welcome Asteras Tripolis to Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kifisia — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis, Kifisia have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Asteras Tripolis have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Asteras Tripolis away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Kifisia) versus 0.80 (Asteras Tripolis). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Kifisia, 1 for Asteras Tripolis and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Kifisia trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Asteras Tripolis trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kifisia 64% versus Asteras Tripolis 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kifisia 57% | Asteras Tripolis 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kifisia 1.41 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kifisia attack 0.889 / defence 1.197 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.757 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.064. Asteras Tripolis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Kifisia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Kifisia games / 52 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kifisia 45% | Draw 31% | Asteras Tripolis 24%. Fair-value odds: Kifisia 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Asteras Tripolis 4.17. Kifisia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kifisia at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kifisia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kifisia 50% | Asteras Tripolis 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kifisia vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Group - 3 | Venue: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kifisia 45% | Draw 31% | Asteras Tripolis 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Kifisia 1.41 / Asteras Tripolis 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Kifisia attack 0.889 / def 1.197 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.757 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: Kifisia (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Kifisia xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Asteras Tripolis xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kifisia vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Kifisia vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis.
What was the final score in Kifisia vs Asteras Tripolis?
Kifisia 0 - 0 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is Kifisia vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis.
What competition is Kifisia vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Kifisia vs Asteras Tripolis is a Relegation Group - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kifisia vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Kifisia a 45% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Kifisia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kifisia vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Kifisia and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will Kifisia vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kifisia and Asteras Tripolis?
Record (5 meetings): Kifisia 1W | Draws 3 | Asteras Tripolis 1W.
What form are Kifisia and Asteras Tripolis in?
Kifisia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Kifisia's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Asteras Tripolis's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Asteras Tripolis's attack versus Kifisia's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kifisia Win
45%
2.22
31%
3.22
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Kifisia xG
Total xG
2.37
0.96
Asteras Tripolis xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
6%
17.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.7 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kifisia vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Kifisia and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Kifisia and 0.96 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Kifisia vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kifisia's recent record stands at 6W 10D 12L from 28 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five.
Asteras Tripolis, meanwhile, have gone 4W 9D 15L across 28 games — 0.75 PPG, with L-D-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kifisia on 1.00 PPG, Asteras Tripolis on 0.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kifisia have managed 4W 4D 6L from 14 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Asteras Tripolis's away record stands at 1W 4D 9L across 14 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kifisia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kifisia are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 0.89 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kifisia have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kifisia
Current Season
Asteras Tripolis
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kifisia and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Kifisia have gone 6W 10D 12L in their last 28 games (1.00 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 4W 9D 15L in their last 28 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kifisia at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
Kifisia's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kifisia at home: 1.14 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kifisia and Asteras Tripolis runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Kifisia's record when hosting Asteras Tripolis specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Kifisia
5
Draws
1
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kifisia and Asteras Tripolis?
From 7 meetings on record, Kifisia have won 1, Asteras Tripolis have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Kifisia and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Asteras Tripolis 0-0 Kifisia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kifisia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kifisia 57%, Asteras Tripolis 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Kifisia) and 36% (Asteras Tripolis).
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kifisia home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kifisia play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Kifisia's recent matches and 36% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kifisia vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Kifisia's recent games and 36% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kifisia and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
Kifisia have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kifisia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis, Relegation Group - 3, as Kifisia and Asteras Tripolis drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kifisia 1.41 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.96 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kifisia fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Asteras Tripolis landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kifisia attack 0.89 / defence 1.20 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.76 / defence 1.21, drawn from 26/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kifisia 45% | Draw 31% | Asteras Tripolis 24%, with Kifisia to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kifisia 57%, Asteras Tripolis 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kifisia's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kifisia 1.00 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kifisia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.