Kallithea 0-0 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AEK Athens FC at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kallithea vs AEK Athens FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis plays host to Kallithea versus AEK Athens FC in Super League 1, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 22 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kallithea have collected 0.75 PPG across 4 Super League 1 outings this season: 0W 3D 1L. Last five: D L D D. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Kallithea have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AEK Athens FC's overall Super League 1 record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. AEK Athens FC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AEK Athens FC away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. AEK Athens FC are 1.45 PPG clear of Kallithea in recent Super League 1 fixtures (2.20 vs 0.75). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Kallithea half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
AEK Athens FC half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kallithea 50% versus AEK Athens FC 25%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kallithea 50% | AEK Athens FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kallithea 1.15 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kallithea attack 0.998 / defence 1.229 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.262 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.285. AEK Athens FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — the away xG of 1.99 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 4 Kallithea games / 30 AEK Athens FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kallithea 19% | Draw 27% | AEK Athens FC 54%. Fair-value odds: Kallithea 5.26 | Draw 3.70 | AEK Athens FC 1.85. AEK Athens FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.15 / 1.99) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AEK Athens FC as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Kallithea 50% | AEK Athens FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kallithea vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kallithea 19% | Draw 27% | AEK Athens FC 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Kallithea 1.15 / AEK Athens FC 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: Kallithea attack 0.998 / def 1.229 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.262 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Kallithea xG
Expected Goals
1.99
AEK Athens FC xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kallithea vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
Kallithea vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What was the final score in Kallithea vs AEK Athens FC?
Kallithea 0 - 0 AEK Athens FC.
Where is Kallithea vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What competition is Kallithea vs AEK Athens FC part of?
Kallithea vs AEK Athens FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kallithea vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives Kallithea a 19% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 54% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kallithea vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Kallithea and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will Kallithea vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kallithea and AEK Athens FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kallithea and AEK Athens FC in?
Kallithea (all comps): 0W-3D-1L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-D. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Kallithea's attack rating (1.00) and AEK Athens FC's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AEK Athens FC's attack (1.26x) against Kallithea's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.99.
These ratings are built from 4/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
19%
5.29
27%
3.71
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Kallithea xG
Total xG
3.15
1.99
AEK Athens FC xG
5.29
19%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
14%
7.34
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
3%
38.86
17%
5.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kallithea vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Kallithea and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Kallithea and 1.99 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Kallithea vs AEK Athens FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kallithea come into this having played 4 games, going 0W 3D 1L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Kallithea, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, AEK Athens FC sit at 2.50 PPG from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L), a run that reads W-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AEK Athens FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.75 PPG clear of Kallithea — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kallithea are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 2.25 scored and 0.25 conceded. AEK Athens FC's attacking output running into Kallithea's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: AEK Athens FC in 25%.
Defensively: Kallithea have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; AEK Athens FC in 75% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kallithea
Early Season
AEK Athens FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kallithea and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
Kallithea have gone 0W 3D 1L in their last 4 games (0.75 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 3W 1D 0L in their last 4 (2.50 PPG).
Have Kallithea or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kallithea have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 75%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Kallithea
1
Draws
1
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kallithea and AEK Athens FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Kallithea have won 0, AEK Athens FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kallithea and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2025, when AEK Athens FC 2-0 Kallithea.
Who has won more matches between Kallithea and AEK Athens FC?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kallithea see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kallithea 50%, AEK Athens FC 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Kallithea) and 50% (AEK Athens FC).
On the defensive side: Kallithea keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; AEK Athens FC in 75%; Kallithea have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kallithea home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kallithea play AEK Athens FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Kallithea's recent matches and 25% of AEK Athens FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kallithea vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Kallithea's recent games and 50% of AEK Athens FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kallithea and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
Kallithea have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kallithea's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kallithea and AEK Athens FC finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kallithea 1.15 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.99 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kallithea fell 1.2 short of their projected output. AEK Athens FC landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kallithea attack 1.00 / defence 1.23 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.26 / defence 0.90, drawn from 4/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kallithea 19% | Draw 27% | AEK Athens FC 54%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kallithea 50%, AEK Athens FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kallithea's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kallithea conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. AEK Athens FC managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.