Ionikos 0-1 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Ionikos take on PAS Giannina.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Ionikos welcome PAS Giannina to Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias in Super League 1 (Relegation Round - 5). Kick-off is Saturday 29 April 2023 at 18:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Ionikos have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters, Ionikos have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, PAS Giannina stand at 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
PAS Giannina away from home: 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Ionikos have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Ionikos, 1 for PAS Giannina and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.2 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 11 Feb 2023, ended Ionikos 0–0 PAS Giannina — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Ionikos trading profile (last 63 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
PAS Giannina trading profile (last 63 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ionikos 44% versus PAS Giannina 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ionikos 41% | PAS Giannina 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ionikos 1.10 xG and PAS Giannina 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ionikos attack 0.785 / defence 1.093 | PAS Giannina attack 0.974 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.000. Ionikos's attack rating of 0.785 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.10. Data: built from Ionikos's last 52 games and PAS Giannina's last 52.
Result probabilities: Ionikos 32% | Draw 38% | PAS Giannina 30%. Fair-value odds: Ionikos 3.12 | Draw 2.67 | PAS Giannina 3.28. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Ionikos's last 10 home games and PAS Giannina's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ionikos 30% (last 10 home games) | PAS Giannina 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ionikos vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias • Kick-off: Saturday 29 April 2023 at 18:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ionikos 32% | Draw 38% | PAS Giannina 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Ionikos 1.10 / PAS Giannina 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Ionikos attack 0.785 / def 1.093 | PAS Giannina attack 0.974 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Ionikos xG
Expected Goals
1.06
PAS Giannina xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ionikos vs PAS Giannina FAQs
What time does Ionikos vs PAS Giannina kick off?
Ionikos vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 18:15 UK time on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What was the final score in Ionikos vs PAS Giannina?
Ionikos 0 - 1 PAS Giannina.
Where is Ionikos vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What competition is Ionikos vs PAS Giannina part of?
Ionikos vs PAS Giannina is a Super League 1 fixture (Relegation Round - 5) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Ionikos vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives Ionikos a 32% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 30% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Ionikos vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Ionikos and PAS Giannina will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Ionikos vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ionikos's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against PAS Giannina's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, PAS Giannina's attack versus Ionikos's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ionikos's last 52 games and PAS Giannina's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.12
38%
2.67
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Ionikos xG
Total xG
2.16
1.06
PAS Giannina xG
3.12
32%
Home win
2.67
38%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
11%
9.05
10%
9.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 12.3 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ionikos vs PAS Giannina Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ionikos vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Ionikos and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Ionikos and 1.06 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Ionikos vs PAS Giannina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ionikos come into this having played 63 games, going 18W 16D 29L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, PAS Giannina sit at 1.05 PPG from 63 outings (15W 21D 27L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ionikos on 1.11 PPG, PAS Giannina on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ionikos's home form reads 9W 10D 11L across their last 30 home games, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, PAS Giannina have taken 0.70 points per game from their last 30 away games (4W 9D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ionikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ionikos are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; PAS Giannina are on 0.95 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ionikos
Current Season
PAS Giannina
Current Season
Ionikos (Home) vs PAS Giannina (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ionikos
Current Season
PAS Giannina
Current Season
❓ Ionikos vs PAS Giannina Form FAQs
What form are Ionikos and PAS Giannina in coming into this match?
Ionikos have gone 18W 16D 29L in their last 63 games (1.11 PPG), while PAS Giannina have gone 15W 21D 27L in their last 63 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ionikos at home or PAS Giannina away?
Ionikos's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ionikos at home: 1.23 PPG; PAS Giannina away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 29 April 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ionikos's record when hosting PAS Giannina specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Ionikos
3
Draws
2
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Ionikos vs PAS Giannina H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and PAS Giannina?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Ionikos have won 0, PAS Giannina have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ionikos and PAS Giannina last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 April 2023: Ionikos 0-1 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between Ionikos and PAS Giannina?
PAS Giannina have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
PAS Giannina see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ionikos 50%, PAS Giannina 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Ionikos) and 33% (PAS Giannina).
On the defensive side: Ionikos have failed to score in 33% of games; PAS Giannina in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ionikos home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ionikos vs PAS Giannina Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ionikos and PAS Giannina matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ionikos's recent matches and 37% of PAS Giannina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ionikos and PAS Giannina matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Ionikos's recent games and 33% of PAS Giannina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ionikos and PAS Giannina matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Ionikos's recent matches and 50% of PAS Giannina's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PAS Giannina defy the odds to beat Ionikos 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAS Giannina beat Ionikos 0-1 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias, Relegation Round - 5, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ionikos 1.10 xG and PAS Giannina 1.06 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ionikos fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ionikos attack 0.79 / defence 1.09 against PAS Giannina attack 0.97 / defence 1.12, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ionikos 32% | Draw 38% | PAS Giannina 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual PAS Giannina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ionikos 41%, PAS Giannina 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ionikos's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PAS Giannina's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ionikos 1.11 PPG, PAS Giannina 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAS Giannina win broke the near-deadlock. Ionikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.