Ionikos 0-2 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ionikos vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 24 as Ionikos welcome OFI to Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ionikos stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Ionikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias, Ionikos have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. OFI's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Ionikos's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Ionikos, 1 for OFI and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 2–0 with Ionikos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Ionikos in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
OFI in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ionikos 48% versus OFI 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ionikos 43% | OFI 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ionikos 0.91 xG and OFI 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ionikos attack 0.811 / defence 1.149 | OFI attack 1.355 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.187 / away 1.008. OFI have an above-average attack strength of 1.355 — the away xG of 1.57 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Ionikos games / 49 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ionikos 18% | Draw 33% | OFI 49%. Fair-value odds: Ionikos 5.56 | Draw 3.03 | OFI 2.04. OFI hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, OFI are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ionikos 60% | OFI 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ionikos vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ionikos 18% | Draw 33% | OFI 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Ionikos 0.91 / OFI 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Ionikos attack 0.811 / def 1.149 | OFI attack 1.355 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.187 / away 1.008 • Poisson stance: OFI (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Ionikos xG
Expected Goals
1.57
OFI xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ionikos vs OFI kick off?
Ionikos vs OFI kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 February 2023 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What was the final score in Ionikos vs OFI?
Ionikos 0 - 2 OFI.
Where is Ionikos vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What competition is Ionikos vs OFI part of?
Ionikos vs OFI is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Ionikos vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Ionikos a 18% chance of winning, OFI a 49% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ionikos vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ionikos and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Ionikos vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and OFI?
Record (4 meetings): Ionikos 2W | Draws 1 | OFI 1W.
What form are Ionikos and OFI in?
Ionikos (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. OFI (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ionikos's attack at 0.81x the league average against OFI's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Ionikos's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 0-2 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
18%
5.46
33%
3.07
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Ionikos xG
Total xG
2.48
1.57
OFI xG
5.46
18%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
4%
26.20
20%
5.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 13.1 | 10.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ionikos vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Ionikos and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Ionikos and 1.57 for OFI, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Ionikos vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ionikos come into this having played 56 games, going 15W 15D 26L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L. The sample for Ionikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, OFI sit at 1.20 PPG from 56 outings (16W 19D 21L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ionikos on 1.07 PPG, OFI on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ionikos's home form reads 7W 10D 10L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, OFI have taken 1.26 points per game from 27 outings (8W 10D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Ionikos are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.09 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ionikos
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ionikos and OFI in coming into this match?
Ionikos have gone 15W 15D 26L in their last 56 games (1.07 PPG), while OFI have gone 16W 19D 21L in their last 56 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ionikos at home or OFI away?
OFI's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ionikos at home: 1.15 PPG; OFI away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Ionikos or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ionikos have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, OFI in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ionikos's record when hosting OFI specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Ionikos
2
Draws
2
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and OFI?
From 6 meetings on record, Ionikos have won 2, OFI have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ionikos and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when OFI 2-2 Ionikos.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ionikos 56%, OFI 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Ionikos) and 52% (OFI).
On the defensive side: Ionikos have failed to score in 33% of games; OFI in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ionikos home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ionikos play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Ionikos's recent matches and 48% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ionikos vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Ionikos's recent games and 52% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ionikos and OFI tend to score early?
Ionikos have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, OFI in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
OFI cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ionikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat Ionikos 0-2 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ionikos 0.91 xG and OFI 1.57 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ionikos fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ionikos attack 0.81 / defence 1.15 against OFI attack 1.35 / defence 0.95, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ionikos 18% | Draw 33% | OFI 49%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ionikos 43%, OFI 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ionikos's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
OFI's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ionikos 1.07 PPG, OFI 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OFI win broke the near-deadlock. Ionikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. OFI (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.