Ionikos 1-4 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ionikos (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ionikos face Atromitos.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Atromitos travel to Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias to take on Ionikos. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 September 2022, 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Ionikos — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ionikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ionikos have posted 4W 3D 3L at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atromitos stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Atromitos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Atromitos's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Ionikos are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Ionikos have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 past contests while Atromitos have managed just 0 wins.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 1–0 with Ionikos winning.
The historical record gives Ionikos a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ionikos in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Atromitos in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ionikos 53% versus Atromitos 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ionikos 50% | Atromitos 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ionikos 1.12 xG and Atromitos 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ionikos attack 0.827 / defence 0.937 | Atromitos attack 1.019 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 0.899. Data: 29 Ionikos games / 29 Atromitos games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ionikos 41% | Draw 33% | Atromitos 27%. Fair-value odds: Ionikos 2.44 | Draw 3.03 | Atromitos 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ionikos at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ionikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Ionikos 50% | Atromitos 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (29 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ionikos vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ionikos 41% | Draw 33% | Atromitos 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Ionikos 1.12 / Atromitos 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Ionikos attack 0.827 / def 0.937 | Atromitos attack 1.019 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.188 / away 0.899 • Poisson stance: Ionikos (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Ionikos xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Atromitos xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ionikos vs Atromitos kick off?
Ionikos vs Atromitos kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What was the final score in Ionikos vs Atromitos?
Ionikos 1 - 4 Atromitos.
Where is Ionikos vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What competition is Ionikos vs Atromitos part of?
Ionikos vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Ionikos vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Ionikos a 41% chance of winning, Atromitos a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ionikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ionikos vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Ionikos and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Ionikos vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and Atromitos?
Record (3 meetings): Ionikos 3W | Draws 0 | Atromitos 0W.
What form are Ionikos and Atromitos in?
Ionikos (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Atromitos (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ionikos's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Ionikos's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (29/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ionikos Win
41%
2.46
33%
3.05
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Ionikos xG
Total xG
1.98
0.86
Atromitos xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
9%
11.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 11.8 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ionikos vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Ionikos and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Ionikos and 0.86 for Atromitos, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Ionikos vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ionikos's recent record stands at 12W 10D 14L from 36 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ionikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Atromitos, meanwhile, have gone 9W 10D 17L across 36 games — 1.03 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Atromitos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ionikos on 1.28 PPG, Atromitos on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ionikos have managed 6W 6D 5L from 17 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atromitos's away record stands at 2W 5D 10L across 17 trips, a 0.65 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ionikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ionikos are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.06 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ionikos
Early Season
Atromitos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ionikos and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Ionikos have gone 12W 10D 14L in their last 36 games (1.28 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 9W 10D 17L in their last 36 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ionikos at home or Atromitos away?
Ionikos's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ionikos at home: 1.41 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Atromitos have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Sep 2022, when Atromitos won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ionikos's record when hosting Atromitos specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Ionikos
0
Draws
3
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and Atromitos?
From 6 meetings on record, Ionikos have won 3, Atromitos have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ionikos and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Atromitos 2-0 Ionikos.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ionikos 53%, Atromitos 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Ionikos) and 53% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Ionikos have failed to score in 35% of games; Atromitos in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ionikos home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ionikos play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Ionikos's recent matches and 47% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ionikos vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Ionikos's recent games and 53% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ionikos and Atromitos tend to score early?
Ionikos have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Atromitos run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Ionikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos beat Ionikos 1-4 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ionikos 1.12 xG and Atromitos 0.86 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Atromitos outscored their 0.86 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ionikos attack 0.83 / defence 0.94 against Atromitos attack 1.02 / defence 1.15, drawn from 29/29 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ionikos 41% | Draw 33% | Atromitos 27%, with Ionikos to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Atromitos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ionikos 50%, Atromitos 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ionikos's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Atromitos's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ionikos 1.28 PPG, Atromitos 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock. Ionikos (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.