Ionikos 4-0 Apollon Smirnis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ionikos at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ionikos face Apollon Smirnis.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ionikos and Apollon Smirnis meet at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias in Super League 1 (matchday 17). This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 23 February 2022 at 17:30 UK time.
Current Form
Ionikos's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Ionikos's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Apollon Smirnis have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Apollon Smirnis's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Ionikos against 0.50 for Apollon Smirnis. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Ionikos, 0 for Apollon Smirnis and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 0.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2021, ended Ionikos 0–0 Apollon Smirnis — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Ionikos half-time and goal-timing data (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Apollon Smirnis half-time and goal-timing data (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 70% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ionikos 48% versus Apollon Smirnis 26%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ionikos 44% | Apollon Smirnis 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ionikos 1.15 xG and Apollon Smirnis 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ionikos attack 0.744 / defence 1.182 | Apollon Smirnis attack 0.570 / defence 1.596. League average goals — home 0.972 / away 1.084. Ionikos's attack rating of 0.744 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.15. Apollon Smirnis's defence rating of 1.596 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ionikos's projected output up. Apollon Smirnis's attack rating of 0.570 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.73. Data: built from Ionikos's last 23 games and Apollon Smirnis's last 23.
Result probabilities: Ionikos 46% | Draw 31% | Apollon Smirnis 23%. Fair-value odds: Ionikos 2.18 | Draw 3.23 | Apollon Smirnis 4.30. Ionikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Apollon Smirnis's lower xG of 0.73 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ionikos are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ionikos if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 71% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ionikos 50% (last 10 home games) | Apollon Smirnis 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ionikos vs Apollon Smirnis | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 17 | Venue: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias • Kick-off: Wednesday 23 February 2022 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ionikos 46% | Draw 31% | Apollon Smirnis 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% (Under 71%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Ionikos 1.15 / Apollon Smirnis 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Ionikos attack 0.744 / def 1.182 | Apollon Smirnis attack 0.570 / def 1.596 | league avg home 0.972 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Ionikos (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Ionikos xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Apollon Smirnis xG
35%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ionikos vs Apollon Smirnis FAQs
What time does Ionikos vs Apollon Smirnis kick off?
Ionikos vs Apollon Smirnis kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Wednesday 23 February 2022 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What was the final score in Ionikos vs Apollon Smirnis?
Ionikos 4 - 0 Apollon Smirnis.
Where is Ionikos vs Apollon Smirnis being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What competition is Ionikos vs Apollon Smirnis part of?
Ionikos vs Apollon Smirnis is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 17) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Ionikos vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our statistical model gives Ionikos a 46% chance of winning, Apollon Smirnis a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ionikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ionikos vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Ionikos and Apollon Smirnis will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Ionikos vs Apollon Smirnis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (71%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ionikos's attack rating (0.74) and Apollon Smirnis's defence rating (1.60), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Apollon Smirnis's attack (0.57x) against Ionikos's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from Ionikos's last 23 games and Apollon Smirnis's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.9%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ionikos Win
46%
2.18
31%
3.23
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Ionikos xG
Total xG
1.88
0.73
Apollon Smirnis xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.82
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
7%
13.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 11.1 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 12.8 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ionikos vs Apollon Smirnis Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ionikos vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Ionikos and Apollon Smirnis expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Ionikos and 0.73 for Apollon Smirnis, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Ionikos vs Apollon Smirnis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ionikos's recent record stands at 5W 7D 11L from 23 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-D in the last five.
Apollon Smirnis, meanwhile, have gone 2W 7D 14L across 23 games — 0.57 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Ionikos against 0.57 for Apollon Smirnis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ionikos have managed 3W 4D 4L from their last 11 home games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Apollon Smirnis's away record stands at 1W 1D 9L across their last 11 away games, a 0.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ionikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ionikos are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Apollon Smirnis are on 0.39 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Apollon Smirnis in 26%.
Last 23 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ionikos
Blended
Apollon Smirnis
Blended
Ionikos (Home) vs Apollon Smirnis (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ionikos
Blended
Apollon Smirnis
Blended
❓ Ionikos vs Apollon Smirnis Form FAQs
What form are Ionikos and Apollon Smirnis in coming into this match?
Ionikos have gone 5W 7D 11L in their last 23 games (0.96 PPG), while Apollon Smirnis have gone 2W 7D 14L in their last 23 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ionikos at home or Apollon Smirnis away?
Ionikos's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ionikos at home: 1.18 PPG; Apollon Smirnis away: 0.36 PPG.
Have Ionikos or Apollon Smirnis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ionikos have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Apollon Smirnis in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 3 H2H matches between Ionikos and Apollon Smirnis, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 2 May 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Ionikos have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ionikos won Ionikos 4-0 Apollon Smirnis on 23 Feb 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ionikos have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Apollon Smirnis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Ionikos
1
Draws
0
Apollon Smirnis
Recent Meetings
❓ Ionikos vs Apollon Smirnis H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and Apollon Smirnis?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Ionikos have won 2, Apollon Smirnis have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Ionikos and Apollon Smirnis last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2022: Ionikos 5-1 Apollon Smirnis.
Who has won more matches between Ionikos and Apollon Smirnis?
Ionikos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Apollon Smirnis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ionikos 46%, Apollon Smirnis 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Ionikos) and 54% (Apollon Smirnis).
On the defensive side: Ionikos have failed to score in 46% of games; Apollon Smirnis in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ionikos home games / Apollon Smirnis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ionikos vs Apollon Smirnis Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ionikos and Apollon Smirnis matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Ionikos's recent matches and 36% of Apollon Smirnis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ionikos and Apollon Smirnis matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Ionikos's recent games and 54% of Apollon Smirnis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ionikos and Apollon Smirnis matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Ionikos's recent matches and 64% of Apollon Smirnis's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ionikos run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Apollon Smirnis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ionikos beat Apollon Smirnis 4-0 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ionikos 1.15 xG and Apollon Smirnis 0.73 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Ionikos beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ionikos attack 0.74 / defence 1.18 against Apollon Smirnis attack 0.57 / defence 1.60, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ionikos 46% | Draw 31% | Apollon Smirnis 23%, with Ionikos to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ionikos 44%, Apollon Smirnis 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ionikos's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Apollon Smirnis's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 70% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ionikos 0.96 PPG, Apollon Smirnis 0.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ionikos win broke the near-deadlock. Ionikos (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Apollon Smirnis (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.