Atromitos 3-2 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Atromitos at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Atromitos face PAS Giannina.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Atromitos and PAS Giannina meet at Stadio Peristeriou in Super League 1 (Relegation Round - 1). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 March 2024 at 17:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Atromitos have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Atromitos's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

PAS Giannina's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

PAS Giannina's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Atromitos, 0.90 for PAS Giannina — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Atromitos edge it 1 wins to 0, with 6 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Mar 2024, ended Atromitos 1–1 PAS Giannina — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Atromitos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

PAS Giannina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 54% versus PAS Giannina 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 36% | PAS Giannina 49%). Note also that PAS Giannina surrender HT leads in 54% of cases while Atromitos recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.73 xG and PAS Giannina 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.837 / defence 1.048 | PAS Giannina attack 0.933 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.359. PAS Giannina's defence rating of 1.261 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Atromitos's projected output up. Data: built from Atromitos's last 52 games and PAS Giannina's last 52.

Result probabilities: Atromitos 45% | Draw 28% | PAS Giannina 28%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 2.24 | Draw 3.62 | PAS Giannina 3.62. Atromitos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.73 / 1.33) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Atromitos as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atromitos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Atromitos's last 10 home games and PAS Giannina's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Atromitos 50% (last 10 home games) | PAS Giannina 70% (last 10 away games).

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