Atromitos 1-1 Panserraikos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Atromitos at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atromitos vs Panserraikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atromitos host Panserraikos at Stadio Peristeriou in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Atromitos — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadio Peristeriou, Atromitos have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Atromitos are significantly better at Stadio Peristeriou than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Panserraikos stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Panserraikos's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Atromitos) versus 1.20 (Panserraikos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Atromitos, 0 for Panserraikos and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Atromitos in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Panserraikos in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 57% versus Panserraikos 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 50% | Panserraikos 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.75 xG and Panserraikos 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.848 / defence 1.048 | Panserraikos attack 0.752 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.360. Panserraikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing Atromitos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Atromitos games / 26 Panserraikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 51% | Draw 28% | Panserraikos 21%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Panserraikos 4.76. Atromitos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atromitos at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Atromitos 50% | Panserraikos 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Panserraikos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 51% | Draw 28% | Panserraikos 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Atromitos 1.75 / Panserraikos 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.848 / def 1.048 | Panserraikos attack 0.752 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Panserraikos xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs Panserraikos kick off?
Atromitos vs Panserraikos kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Panserraikos?
Atromitos 1 - 1 Panserraikos.
Where is Atromitos vs Panserraikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs Panserraikos part of?
Atromitos vs Panserraikos is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Panserraikos?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 51% chance of winning, Panserraikos a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Panserraikos?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Atromitos and Panserraikos will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs Panserraikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Panserraikos?
Record (2 meetings): Atromitos 0W | Draws 2 | Panserraikos 0W.
What form are Atromitos and Panserraikos in?
Atromitos (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Panserraikos (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Atromitos's attack at 0.85x the league average against Panserraikos's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Panserraikos's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
51%
1.96
28%
3.59
21%
4.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.82
1.07
Panserraikos xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
4.74
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
17%
5.72
4%
27.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.2 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Panserraikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Panserraikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.07 for Panserraikos, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Panserraikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atromitos come into this having played 28 games, going 7W 11D 10L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-D.
On the other side, Panserraikos sit at 1.07 PPG from 28 outings (7W 9D 12L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atromitos on 1.14 PPG, Panserraikos on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Atromitos's home form reads 5W 6D 3L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Panserraikos have taken 0.64 points per game from 14 outings (2W 3D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Panserraikos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atromitos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Atromitos are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Panserraikos are on 1.07 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Current Season
Panserraikos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and Panserraikos in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 7W 11D 10L in their last 28 games (1.14 PPG), while Panserraikos have gone 7W 9D 12L in their last 28 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Panserraikos away?
Atromitos's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.50 PPG; Panserraikos away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Atromitos go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2026, when Atromitos won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atromitos's record when hosting Panserraikos specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Atromitos
5
Draws
0
Panserraikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Panserraikos?
From 9 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 4, Panserraikos have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Panserraikos last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Atromitos 6-0 Panserraikos.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Panserraikos?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 57%, Panserraikos 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Atromitos) and 43% (Panserraikos).
On the defensive side: Atromitos have failed to score in 36% of games; Panserraikos in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Panserraikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play Panserraikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Atromitos's recent matches and 29% of Panserraikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs Panserraikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Atromitos's recent games and 43% of Panserraikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and Panserraikos tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Panserraikos in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atromitos and Panserraikos share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Peristeriou, Relegation Round - 3, as Atromitos and Panserraikos drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.75 xG and Panserraikos 1.07 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.85 / defence 1.05 against Panserraikos attack 0.75 / defence 1.26, drawn from 52/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 51% | Draw 28% | Panserraikos 21%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 50%, Panserraikos 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Panserraikos's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.14 PPG, Panserraikos 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Panserraikos (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.