Atromitos 0-1 Ionikos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Atromitos at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atromitos vs Ionikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Relegation Round - 6 as Atromitos welcome Ionikos to Stadio Peristeriou. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 May 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Atromitos have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Atromitos at Stadio Peristeriou this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ionikos stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ionikos away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Atromitos) versus 2.10 (Ionikos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Atromitos have won 0, Ionikos 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2022, ended 1–2 with Ionikos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Atromitos in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Ionikos in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 48% versus Ionikos 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 48% | Ionikos 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.36 xG and Ionikos 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 1.078 / defence 1.328 | Ionikos attack 0.875 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 0.986 / away 1.050. Ionikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.284 — this is suppressing Atromitos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Atromitos games / 26 Ionikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 40% | Draw 27% | Ionikos 33%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Ionikos 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atromitos are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 50% | Ionikos 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Ionikos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 6 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 40% | Draw 27% | Ionikos 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Atromitos 1.36 / Ionikos 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 1.078 / def 1.328 | Ionikos attack 0.875 / def 1.284 | league avg home 0.986 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Ionikos xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs Ionikos kick off?
Atromitos vs Ionikos kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Ionikos?
Atromitos 0 - 1 Ionikos.
Where is Atromitos vs Ionikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs Ionikos part of?
Atromitos vs Ionikos is a Relegation Round - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Ionikos?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 40% chance of winning, Ionikos a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Ionikos?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Atromitos and Ionikos will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs Ionikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Ionikos?
Record (2 meetings): Atromitos 0W | Draws 0 | Ionikos 2W.
What form are Atromitos and Ionikos in?
Atromitos (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Ionikos (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Atromitos's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Ionikos's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Ionikos's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
40%
2.49
27%
3.77
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.58
1.22
Ionikos xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
12%
8.44
9%
11.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.6 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Ionikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Ionikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.22 for Ionikos, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Ionikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atromitos's recent record stands at 8W 8D 15L from 31 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-D in the last five.
Ionikos, meanwhile, have gone 10W 9D 12L across 31 games — 1.26 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atromitos on 1.03 PPG, Ionikos on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Atromitos have managed 6W 3D 6L from 15 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ionikos's away record stands at 5W 4D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Atromitos are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Ionikos are on 1.29 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Current Season
Ionikos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and Ionikos in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 8W 8D 15L in their last 31 games (1.03 PPG), while Ionikos have gone 10W 9D 12L in their last 31 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Ionikos away?
Atromitos's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.40 PPG; Ionikos away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atromitos and Ionikos runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Atromitos have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Sep 2022, when Atromitos won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atromitos's record when hosting Ionikos specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Atromitos
0
Draws
3
Ionikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Ionikos?
From 6 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 3, Ionikos have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Ionikos last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Atromitos 2-0 Ionikos.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 53%, Ionikos 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Atromitos) and 47% (Ionikos).
On the defensive side: Atromitos have failed to score in 27% of games; Ionikos in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Ionikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play Ionikos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Atromitos's games and 60% of Ionikos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atromitos vs Ionikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Atromitos's recent games and 47% of Ionikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and Ionikos tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Ionikos in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ionikos defy the odds to beat Atromitos 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ionikos beat Atromitos 0-1 at Stadio Peristeriou, Relegation Round - 6, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.36 xG and Ionikos 1.22 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Atromitos fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 1.08 / defence 1.33 against Ionikos attack 0.88 / defence 1.28, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 40% | Draw 27% | Ionikos 33%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Ionikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 48%, Ionikos 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ionikos's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.03 PPG, Ionikos 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ionikos win broke the near-deadlock. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Ionikos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.