Asteras Tripolis 1-1 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AEK Athens FC at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AEK Athens FC make the trip to Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis to face Asteras Tripolis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 November 2022 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
Asteras Tripolis (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Asteras Tripolis have posted 1W 4D 5L at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
AEK Athens FC have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, AEK Athens FC have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. AEK Athens FC are 1.50 PPG clear of Asteras Tripolis in recent Super League 1 fixtures (2.40 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Asteras Tripolis, 1 for AEK Athens FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2022, ended 1–2 with AEK Athens FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Asteras Tripolis — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
AEK Athens FC — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 35% versus AEK Athens FC 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Asteras Tripolis 28% | AEK Athens FC 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 0.69 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.821 / defence 0.790 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.320 / defence 0.726. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.113. AEK Athens FC's defence strength of 0.726 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. AEK Athens FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.320 — the away xG of 1.16 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Asteras Tripolis's defence rating of 0.790 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 Asteras Tripolis games / 36 AEK Athens FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 18% | Draw 39% | AEK Athens FC 43%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 5.56 | Draw 2.56 | AEK Athens FC 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 39% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AEK Athens FC at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 39% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.85 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Asteras Tripolis 30% | AEK Athens FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 18% | Draw 39% | AEK Athens FC 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 38% | xG Asteras Tripolis 0.69 / AEK Athens FC 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.821 / def 0.790 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.320 / def 0.726 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
1.16
AEK Athens FC xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC?
Asteras Tripolis 1 - 1 AEK Athens FC.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 18% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 43% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and AEK Athens FC?
Record (2 meetings): Asteras Tripolis 0W | Draws 1 | AEK Athens FC 1W.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and AEK Athens FC in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Asteras Tripolis's attack at 0.82x the league average against AEK Athens FC's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 0.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AEK Athens FC's attack (1.32x) against Asteras Tripolis's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
18%
5.47
39%
2.59
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
1.85
1.16
AEK Athens FC xG
5.47
18%
Home win
2.59
39%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
50%
2.00
Win to Nil
6%
17.46
22%
4.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 18.1 | 10.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 1.16 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Asteras Tripolis come into this having played 43 games, going 12W 14D 17L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AEK Athens FC sit at 1.70 PPG from 43 outings (22W 7D 14L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AEK Athens FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Asteras Tripolis's home form reads 8W 5D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, AEK Athens FC have taken 1.81 points per game from 21 outings (11W 5D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 1.58 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; AEK Athens FC in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
AEK Athens FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 12W 14D 17L in their last 43 games (1.16 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 22W 7D 14L in their last 43 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or AEK Athens FC away?
AEK Athens FC's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.38 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Asteras Tripolis or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: AEK Athens FC have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won 0-3 on 22 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Asteras Tripolis have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AEK Athens FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Asteras Tripolis
2
Draws
8
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and AEK Athens FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 0, AEK Athens FC have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Asteras Tripolis 0-1 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and AEK Athens FC?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Asteras Tripolis 24%, AEK Athens FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Asteras Tripolis) and 48% (AEK Athens FC).
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; AEK Athens FC in 38%; Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 48% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play AEK Athens FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 24% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 52% of AEK Athens FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 48% of AEK Athens FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Asteras Tripolis and AEK Athens FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Regular Season - 11, as Asteras Tripolis and AEK Athens FC drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 0.69 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.16 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.82 / defence 0.79 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.32 / defence 0.73, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 18% | Draw 39% | AEK Athens FC 43%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 39%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 28%, AEK Athens FC 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.