Aris Thessalonikis 2-0 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 9 as Aris Thessalonikis welcome PAS Giannina to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 October 2023 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Aris Thessalonikis are significantly better at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, PAS Giannina have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAS Giannina away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Aris Thessalonikis 1.20 PPG, PAS Giannina 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Aris Thessalonikis, 2 for PAS Giannina and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2023, ended 3–1 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Aris Thessalonikis in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
PAS Giannina in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 49% versus PAS Giannina 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 58% | PAS Giannina 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.81 xG and PAS Giannina 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.985 / defence 0.891 | PAS Giannina attack 1.028 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.624 / away 1.075. Data: 34 Aris Thessalonikis games / 34 PAS Giannina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 54% | Draw 29% | PAS Giannina 17%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 1.85 | Draw 3.45 | PAS Giannina 5.88. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 70% | PAS Giannina 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 54% | Draw 29% | PAS Giannina 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.81 / PAS Giannina 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.985 / def 0.891 | PAS Giannina attack 1.028 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.624 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.99
PAS Giannina xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina?
Aris Thessalonikis 2 - 0 PAS Giannina.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 54% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 17% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina?
Record (6 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 3W | Draws 1 | PAS Giannina 2W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. PAS Giannina (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Aris Thessalonikis's attack rating (0.98) and PAS Giannina's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAS Giannina's attack versus Aris Thessalonikis's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
54%
1.87
29%
3.40
17%
5.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.80
0.99
PAS Giannina xG
1.87
54%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
5.88
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
3%
36.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.9 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.99 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Aris Thessalonikis's recent record stands at 17W 7D 17L from 41 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAS Giannina, meanwhile, have gone 8W 15D 18L across 41 games — 0.95 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Aris Thessalonikis by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over PAS Giannina heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Aris Thessalonikis have managed 13W 2D 5L from 20 games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — Aris Thessalonikis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
PAS Giannina's away record stands at 2W 9D 9L across 20 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; PAS Giannina are on 1.02 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
PAS Giannina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 17W 7D 17L in their last 41 games (1.41 PPG), while PAS Giannina have gone 8W 15D 18L in their last 41 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or PAS Giannina away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 2.05 PPG; PAS Giannina away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Nov 2021, when PAS Giannina won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aris Thessalonikis's record when hosting PAS Giannina specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Aris Thessalonikis
2
Draws
2
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina?
From 8 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 4, PAS Giannina have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when PAS Giannina 0-0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 60%, PAS Giannina 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Aris Thessalonikis and 50% for PAS Giannina. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PAS Giannina in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play PAS Giannina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Aris Thessalonikis's games and 65% of PAS Giannina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Aris Thessalonikis's matches and 50% of PAS Giannina's.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, PAS Giannina in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aris Thessalonikis cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over PAS Giannina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat PAS Giannina 2-0 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.81 xG and PAS Giannina 0.99 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. PAS Giannina landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.98 / defence 0.89 against PAS Giannina attack 1.03 / defence 1.14, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 54% | Draw 29% | PAS Giannina 17%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 58%, PAS Giannina 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
PAS Giannina's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.