Aris Thessalonikis 3-1 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis

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Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis plays host to Aris Thessalonikis versus Levadiakos in Super League 1 (matchday 10). Kick-off: Sunday 3 November 2024 at 14:30 UK time.

Form

Aris Thessalonikis (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Levadiakos's record over their last 9 games: 0W 6D 3L (0.67 PPG). Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.89 per game is modest, conceding 1.56 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings (11%).

Levadiakos away from home: 0W 3D 1L from their last 4 away games — 0.75 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The points-per-game gap of 1.13 in Aris Thessalonikis's favour (1.80 vs 0.67) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Aris Thessalonikis's last 10 home games and Levadiakos's last 4 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Aris Thessalonikis's games and 75% of Levadiakos's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Aris Thessalonikis, 0 for Levadiakos and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Dec 2022, ended Aris Thessalonikis 1–1 Levadiakos — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Aris Thessalonikis half-time and goal-timing data (last 9 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (last 9 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 56% versus Levadiakos 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Aris Thessalonikis 22% | Levadiakos 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.67 xG and Levadiakos 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.250 / defence 0.787 | Levadiakos attack 0.993 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.093 / away 1.203. Levadiakos's defence rating of 1.218 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Aris Thessalonikis's projected output up. Aris Thessalonikis have a tight defence (rating 0.787), which is pulling Levadiakos's projected output down. Data: built from Aris Thessalonikis's last 35 games and Levadiakos's last 9.

Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 53% | Draw 28% | Levadiakos 19%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 1.90 | Draw 3.59 | Levadiakos 5.13. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Aris Thessalonikis 70% (last 10 home games) | Levadiakos 75% (last 4 away games).

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