Aris Thessalonikis 0-2 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AEK Athens FC make the trip to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis to face Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 October 2022 at 19:15 UTC.
Current Form
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Aris Thessalonikis at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
AEK Athens FC (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. AEK Athens FC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, AEK Athens FC have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Aris Thessalonikis against 1.60 for AEK Athens FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
AEK Athens FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 29% versus AEK Athens FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 36% | AEK Athens FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.20 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.110 / defence 0.832 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.274 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.026. AEK Athens FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — the away xG of 1.09 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 32 Aris Thessalonikis games / 32 AEK Athens FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 36% | Draw 34% | AEK Athens FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | AEK Athens FC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aris Thessalonikis are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 30% | AEK Athens FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 36% | Draw 34% | AEK Athens FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 49% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.20 / AEK Athens FC 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.110 / def 0.832 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.274 / def 0.845 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.026 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
1.09
AEK Athens FC xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 19:15 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC?
Aris Thessalonikis 0 - 2 AEK Athens FC.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 36% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and AEK Athens FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and AEK Athens FC in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Aris Thessalonikis's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against AEK Athens FC's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — AEK Athens FC's attack (1.27x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
36%
2.81
34%
2.92
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.29
1.09
AEK Athens FC xG
2.81
36%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
12%
8.34
9%
10.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 11.1 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 1.09 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Aris Thessalonikis come into this having played 42 games, going 21W 9D 12L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, AEK Athens FC sit at 1.62 PPG from 42 outings (20W 8D 14L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Aris Thessalonikis against 1.62 for AEK Athens FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Aris Thessalonikis's home form reads 11W 7D 3L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, AEK Athens FC have taken 1.57 points per game from 21 outings (9W 6D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 1.62 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aris Thessalonikis have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; AEK Athens FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
AEK Athens FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 21W 9D 12L in their last 42 games (1.71 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 20W 8D 14L in their last 42 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or AEK Athens FC away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.90 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 11 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won 4-0 on 30 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AEK Athens FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Aris Thessalonikis
3
Draws
7
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and AEK Athens FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 0, AEK Athens FC have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 1-1 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and AEK Athens FC?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 24%, AEK Athens FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 52% (AEK Athens FC).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 48% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play AEK Athens FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 24% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 57% of AEK Athens FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 52% of AEK Athens FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AEK Athens FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Aris Thessalonikis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat Aris Thessalonikis 0-2 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.20 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.09 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis fell 1.2 short of their projected output. AEK Athens FC outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.11 / defence 0.83 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.27 / defence 0.84, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 36% | Draw 34% | AEK Athens FC 30%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual AEK Athens FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 36%, AEK Athens FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aris Thessalonikis 1.71 PPG, AEK Athens FC 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AEK Athens FC win broke the near-deadlock. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.