Apollon Smirnis 1-1 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Relegation Round - 4 sees Volos NFC travel to Stadio Georgios Kamaras to take on Apollon Smirnis. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 April 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Apollon Smirnis have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Apollon Smirnis's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Georgios Kamaras this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Georgios Kamaras. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Volos NFC — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Volos NFC have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Apollon Smirnis) versus 1.00 (Volos NFC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Apollon Smirnis, 2 for Volos NFC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2022, ended 0–1 with Volos NFC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Apollon Smirnis trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 69% of games.
Volos NFC trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Apollon Smirnis 24% versus Volos NFC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Apollon Smirnis 41% | Volos NFC 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Apollon Smirnis 0.65 xG and Volos NFC 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Apollon Smirnis attack 0.501 / defence 1.286 | Volos NFC attack 0.953 / defence 1.307. League average goals — home 0.988 / away 1.050. Apollon Smirnis's attack strength of 0.501 is below the league average — the 0.65 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Volos NFC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.307 — this is suppressing Apollon Smirnis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Apollon Smirnis games / 26 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Apollon Smirnis 19% | Draw 29% | Volos NFC 52%. Fair-value odds: Apollon Smirnis 5.26 | Draw 3.45 | Volos NFC 1.92. Volos NFC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Apollon Smirnis's lower xG of 0.65 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Volos NFC are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Volos NFC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.93 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Apollon Smirnis 10% | Volos NFC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Kamaras • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Apollon Smirnis 19% | Draw 29% | Volos NFC 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 35% | xG Apollon Smirnis 0.65 / Volos NFC 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Apollon Smirnis attack 0.501 / def 1.286 | Volos NFC attack 0.953 / def 1.307 | league avg home 0.988 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.65
Apollon Smirnis xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Volos NFC xG
35%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC kick off?
Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Stadio Georgios Kamaras.
What was the final score in Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC?
Apollon Smirnis 1 - 1 Volos NFC.
Where is Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Kamaras.
What competition is Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC part of?
Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Apollon Smirnis a 19% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 52% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Apollon Smirnis and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Apollon Smirnis and Volos NFC?
Record (2 meetings): Apollon Smirnis 0W | Draws 0 | Volos NFC 2W.
What form are Apollon Smirnis and Volos NFC in?
Apollon Smirnis (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Volos NFC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Apollon Smirnis's attacking strength (0.50x league average) is weighed against Volos NFC's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.65. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Apollon Smirnis's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 17.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.0%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
19%
5.36
29%
3.40
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
0 – 2
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.65
Apollon Smirnis xG
Total xG
1.93
1.29
Volos NFC xG
5.36
19%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.90
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
52%
1.91
Win to Nil
5%
19.42
27%
3.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 18.6 | 12.0 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.0 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Apollon Smirnis and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 0.65 expected goals for Apollon Smirnis and 1.29 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Apollon Smirnis's recent record stands at 4W 7D 18L from 29 games, a 0.66 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Volos NFC, meanwhile, have gone 9W 7D 13L across 29 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-D-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Volos NFC by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Apollon Smirnis heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Apollon Smirnis have managed 2W 6D 6L from 14 games — 0.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Volos NFC's away record stands at 3W 5D 6L across 14 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Apollon Smirnis are averaging 0.41 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.38 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Apollon Smirnis have seen both teams score in 24% of their recent games; Volos NFC in 62%.
Last 29 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Apollon Smirnis
Current Season
Volos NFC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Apollon Smirnis and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Apollon Smirnis have gone 4W 7D 18L in their last 29 games (0.66 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 9W 7D 13L in their last 29 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Apollon Smirnis at home or Volos NFC away?
Volos NFC's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Apollon Smirnis at home: 0.86 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Apollon Smirnis's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Apollon Smirnis
1
Draws
2
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Apollon Smirnis and Volos NFC?
From 3 meetings on record, Apollon Smirnis have won 0, Volos NFC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Apollon Smirnis and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2022, when Apollon Smirnis 1-1 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between Apollon Smirnis and Volos NFC?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Apollon Smirnis see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Apollon Smirnis 14%, Volos NFC 79% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Apollon Smirnis) and 71% (Volos NFC).
On the defensive side: Apollon Smirnis keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Apollon Smirnis have failed to score in 71% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Apollon Smirnis home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Apollon Smirnis play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 14% of Apollon Smirnis's recent matches and 79% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Apollon Smirnis vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Apollon Smirnis's recent games and 71% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Apollon Smirnis and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Apollon Smirnis have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Apollon Smirnis and Volos NFC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Georgios Kamaras, Relegation Round - 4, as Apollon Smirnis and Volos NFC drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Apollon Smirnis 0.65 xG and Volos NFC 1.29 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Apollon Smirnis attack 0.50 / defence 1.29 against Volos NFC attack 0.95 / defence 1.31, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Apollon Smirnis 19% | Draw 29% | Volos NFC 52%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Apollon Smirnis 41%, Volos NFC 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Apollon Smirnis's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did.
Volos NFC's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Volos NFC arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.66. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Volos NFC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.