AEK Athens FC 3-0 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AEK Athens FC at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AEK Athens FC vs OFI encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AEK Athens FC host OFI at OPAP Arena in Super League 1, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 9 November 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AEK Athens FC — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at OPAP Arena, AEK Athens FC have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at OPAP Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at OPAP Arena this season.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, OFI have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
On current form, AEK Athens FC have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for AEK Athens FC, 1 for OFI and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with OFI winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
AEK Athens FC trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
OFI trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 50% versus OFI 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 50% | OFI 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.57 xG and OFI 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.205 / defence 0.721 | OFI attack 0.965 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.217 / away 1.075. AEK Athens FC's defence rating of 0.721 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 AEK Athens FC games / 37 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 54% | Draw 32% | OFI 14%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 1.85 | Draw 3.12 | OFI 7.14. AEK Athens FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AEK Athens FC as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AEK Athens FC 30% | OFI 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: OPAP Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Nov 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 54% | Draw 32% | OFI 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG AEK Athens FC 1.57 / OFI 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.205 / def 0.721 | OFI attack 0.965 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.217 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
0.75
OFI xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs OFI kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs OFI kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 9 November 2022 at OPAP Arena.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
AEK Athens FC 3 - 0 OFI.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at OPAP Arena.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs OFI part of?
AEK Athens FC vs OFI is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 54% chance of winning, OFI a 14% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both AEK Athens FC and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and OFI?
Record (2 meetings): AEK Athens FC 0W | Draws 1 | OFI 1W.
What form are AEK Athens FC and OFI in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. OFI (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AEK Athens FC's attack rating (1.21) and OFI's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus AEK Athens FC's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 2-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
54%
1.87
32%
3.11
14%
7.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.32
0.75
OFI xG
1.87
54%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
7.03
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
25%
3.94
3%
33.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 11.6 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.75 for OFI, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AEK Athens FC's recent record stands at 22W 8D 14L from 44 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 12W 15D 17L across 44 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-D-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours AEK Athens FC by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over OFI heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AEK Athens FC have managed 11W 2D 8L from 21 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
OFI's away record stands at 6W 8D 7L across 21 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AEK Athens FC are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.09 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and OFI in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 22W 8D 14L in their last 44 games (1.68 PPG), while OFI have gone 12W 15D 17L in their last 44 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or OFI away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 1.67 PPG; OFI away: 1.24 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, OFI in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AEK Athens FC and OFI runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 21 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
AEK Athens FC go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2022, when AEK Athens FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AEK Athens FC's record when hosting OFI specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
AEK Athens FC
1
Draws
2
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 7, OFI have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 21 December 2025, when AEK Athens FC 2-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and OFI?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 48%, OFI 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (AEK Athens FC) and 48% (OFI).
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; OFI in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 48% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of AEK Athens FC's recent games and 48% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AEK Athens FC and OFI tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, OFI in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AEK Athens FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat OFI 3-0 at OPAP Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.57 xG and OFI 0.75 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. AEK Athens FC beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.21 / defence 0.72 against OFI attack 0.96 / defence 1.07, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 54% | Draw 32% | OFI 14%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 50%, OFI 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
OFI's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.