Werder Bremen 2-1 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Werder Bremen host VfL Wolfsburg at Weserstadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 7 November 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Werder Bremen stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen at Weserstadion this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Weserstadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfL Wolfsburg have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, VfL Wolfsburg have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Werder Bremen at 1.50 PPG versus VfL Wolfsburg's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Werder Bremen, 4 for VfL Wolfsburg and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2025, ended 1–2 with VfL Wolfsburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Werder Bremen in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
VfL Wolfsburg in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Werder Bremen 51% versus VfL Wolfsburg 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 65% | VfL Wolfsburg 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.25 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.858 / defence 0.967 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.867 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.501. Data: 43 Werder Bremen games / 43 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 36% | Draw 27% | VfL Wolfsburg 36%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | VfL Wolfsburg 2.78. The draw (27%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 27% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Werder Bremen 30% | VfL Wolfsburg 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Weserstadion • Kick-off: Friday 7 Nov 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 36% | Draw 27% | VfL Wolfsburg 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Werder Bremen 1.25 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.858 / def 0.967 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.867 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.501 • Poisson stance: Draw (27%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.26
VfL Wolfsburg xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 7 November 2025 at Weserstadion.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Werder Bremen 2 - 1 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at Weserstadion.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 36% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Werder Bremen and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and VfL Wolfsburg?
Record (8 meetings): Werder Bremen 2W | Draws 2 | VfL Wolfsburg 4W.
What form are Werder Bremen and VfL Wolfsburg in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Werder Bremen's attack rating (0.86) and VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus Werder Bremen's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
36%
2.76
27%
3.66
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
2.51
1.26
VfL Wolfsburg xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
10%
9.72
10%
9.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.2 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.8 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.26 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Werder Bremen come into this having played 43 games, going 17W 12D 14L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VfL Wolfsburg sit at 1.19 PPG from 43 outings (13W 12D 18L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Werder Bremen on 1.47 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Werder Bremen's home form reads 7W 7D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, VfL Wolfsburg have taken 1.57 points per game from 21 outings (10W 3D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.56 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Wolfsburg in 65%.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 17W 12D 14L in their last 43 games (1.47 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 13W 12D 18L in their last 43 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
VfL Wolfsburg's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.33 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Werder Bremen or VfL Wolfsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Werder Bremen have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, VfL Wolfsburg in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Werder Bremen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Werder Bremen's record when hosting VfL Wolfsburg specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Werder Bremen
2
Draws
4
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 4, VfL Wolfsburg have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when VfL Wolfsburg 0-1 Werder Bremen.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 43%, VfL Wolfsburg 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Werder Bremen) and 57% (VfL Wolfsburg).
On the defensive side: Werder Bremen keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Werder Bremen have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play VfL Wolfsburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Werder Bremen's recent matches and 57% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Werder Bremen's recent games and 57% of VfL Wolfsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Werder Bremen and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Werder Bremen defy the odds to beat VfL Wolfsburg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen beat VfL Wolfsburg 2-1 at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.25 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.26 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.86 / defence 0.97 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.87 / defence 0.95, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 36% | Draw 27% | VfL Wolfsburg 36%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 65%, VfL Wolfsburg 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.47 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Werder Bremen win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.