Werder Bremen 4-1 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Werder Bremen at 36% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Werder Bremen and Union Berlin meet at Weserstadion in Bundesliga (matchday 15). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 December 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Werder Bremen have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Werder Bremen have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Union Berlin (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Union Berlin's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Werder Bremen's favour (1.70 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Union Berlin, who have 5 wins from 6 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Mar 2024, ended Werder Bremen 1–2 Union Berlin — a Union Berlin win.
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Data
Werder Bremen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Union Berlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Werder Bremen 58% versus Union Berlin 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 60% | Union Berlin 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.29 xG and Union Berlin 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.875 / defence 1.095 | Union Berlin attack 0.726 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.671 / away 1.487. Union Berlin's attack rating of 0.726 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.18. Data: built from Werder Bremen's last 48 games and Union Berlin's last 48.
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 36% | Draw 34% | Union Berlin 31%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 2.79 | Draw 2.98 | Union Berlin 3.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record in our data (5 wins to 1), but Werder Bremen carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Werder Bremen at 36% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Werder Bremen 60% (last 10 home games) | Union Berlin 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 15 | Venue: Weserstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 December 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 36% | Draw 34% | Union Berlin 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Werder Bremen 1.29 / Union Berlin 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.875 / def 1.095 | Union Berlin attack 0.726 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.671 / away 1.487 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Union Berlin xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin FAQs
What time does Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin kick off?
Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 21 December 2024 at Weserstadion.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin?
Werder Bremen 4 - 1 Union Berlin.
Where is Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Weserstadion.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin part of?
Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 15) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 36% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Werder Bremen and Union Berlin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Werder Bremen's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Union Berlin's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (0.73x) against Werder Bremen's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from Werder Bremen's last 48 games and Union Berlin's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
36%
2.79
34%
2.98
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
2.47
1.18
Union Berlin xG
2.79
36%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
11%
9.11
8%
11.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.0 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.9 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.18 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Werder Bremen have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 17W 13D 18L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Union Berlin's form line: 13W 11D 24L from 48 games, 1.04 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Werder Bremen against 1.04 for Union Berlin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Werder Bremen have posted 1.35 PPG from their last 23 home games (8W 7D 8L).
On the road, Union Berlin have gone 2W 6D 15L from their last 23 away games — 0.52 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Berlin's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Werder Bremen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 0.96 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
Werder Bremen (Home) vs Union Berlin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Werder Bremen
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin Form FAQs
What form are Werder Bremen and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 17W 13D 18L in their last 48 games (1.33 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 13W 11D 24L in their last 48 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or Union Berlin away?
Werder Bremen's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.35 PPG; Union Berlin away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Werder Bremen and Union Berlin, the earliest from January 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 8 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Werder Bremen have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Werder Bremen won Werder Bremen 4-1 Union Berlin on 21 Dec 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Werder Bremen have gone 3W 0D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Werder Bremen
1
Draws
5
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Union Berlin?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Werder Bremen have won 4, Union Berlin have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and Union Berlin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 March 2026: Union Berlin 1-4 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Union Berlin see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 61%, Union Berlin 26% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Werder Bremen) and 30% (Union Berlin).
On the defensive side: Werder Bremen have failed to score in 26% of games; Union Berlin in 65%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Werder Bremen and Union Berlin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Werder Bremen's recent matches and 26% of Union Berlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Werder Bremen and Union Berlin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of Werder Bremen's recent games and 30% of Union Berlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Werder Bremen and Union Berlin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Werder Bremen's recent matches and 52% of Union Berlin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Werder Bremen run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Union Berlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen beat Union Berlin 4-1 at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.29 xG and Union Berlin 1.18 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Werder Bremen beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against Union Berlin attack 0.73 / defence 0.88, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 36% | Draw 34% | Union Berlin 31%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 60%, Union Berlin 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Union Berlin's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.33 PPG, Union Berlin 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Werder Bremen win broke the near-deadlock. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm. Union Berlin (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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