Werder Bremen 0-2 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Werder Bremen at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Werder Bremen face FC Augsburg.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg meet at Weserstadion in Bundesliga (matchday 18). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 January 2025 at 16:30 UK time.

Form

Werder Bremen (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Werder Bremen have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

FC Augsburg's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

When travelling, FC Augsburg have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Werder Bremen against 1.20 for FC Augsburg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Werder Bremen's last 10 home games and FC Augsburg's last 10 away games) — Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, FC Augsburg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Werder Bremen, 3 for FC Augsburg and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2024, ended Werder Bremen 2–2 FC Augsburg — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Werder Bremen half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

FC Augsburg half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 61% and FC Augsburg 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 63% | FC Augsburg 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 2.27 xG and FC Augsburg 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 1.070 / defence 1.198 | FC Augsburg attack 0.847 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.806 / away 1.445. Data: built from Werder Bremen's last 51 games and FC Augsburg's last 51.

Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 56% | Draw 20% | FC Augsburg 24%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 1.80 | Draw 4.98 | FC Augsburg 4.12. The model has a clear lean to Werder Bremen (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.74. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.74 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (2.27 / 1.47) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Werder Bremen are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.74 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Werder Bremen's last 10 home games and FC Augsburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Werder Bremen 70% (last 10 home games) | FC Augsburg 60% (last 10 away games).

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