VfL Wolfsburg 0-2 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfL Wolfsburg at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees VfB Stuttgart travel to VOLKSWAGEN ARENA to take on VfL Wolfsburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 December 2021, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfL Wolfsburg stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — VfL Wolfsburg are significantly better at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfB Stuttgart have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (VfL Wolfsburg) versus 1.00 (VfB Stuttgart). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
VfL Wolfsburg trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfL Wolfsburg 50% and VfB Stuttgart 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 52% | VfB Stuttgart 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.38 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.756 / defence 1.037 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.797 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.756 / away 1.346. VfL Wolfsburg's attack strength of 0.756 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 VfL Wolfsburg games / 48 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 40% | Draw 33% | VfB Stuttgart 27%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | VfB Stuttgart 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfL Wolfsburg are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: VfL Wolfsburg 40% | VfB Stuttgart 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: VOLKSWAGEN ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 40% | Draw 33% | VfB Stuttgart 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG VfL Wolfsburg 1.38 / VfB Stuttgart 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.756 / def 1.037 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.797 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.756 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.11
VfB Stuttgart xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
VfL Wolfsburg 0 - 2 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 40% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart in?
VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates VfL Wolfsburg's attack at 0.76x the league average against VfB Stuttgart's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus VfL Wolfsburg's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
40%
2.50
33%
3.06
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
2.49
1.11
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
7%
14.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.11 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VfL Wolfsburg come into this having played 48 games, going 23W 12D 13L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-L. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 1.23 PPG from 48 outings (15W 14D 19L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfL Wolfsburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
VfL Wolfsburg's home form reads 13W 4D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 1.17 points per game from 23 outings (7W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfL Wolfsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.58 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart in 71%.
Defensively: VfL Wolfsburg have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 23W 12D 13L in their last 48 games (1.69 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 15W 14D 19L in their last 48 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
VfL Wolfsburg's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 1.87 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.17 PPG.
Have VfL Wolfsburg or VfB Stuttgart been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfL Wolfsburg have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, VfB Stuttgart in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
VfB Stuttgart have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Mar 2026, when VfB Stuttgart won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfL Wolfsburg's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
VfL Wolfsburg
2
Draws
5
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, VfB Stuttgart have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 4-0 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Wolfsburg 44%, VfB Stuttgart 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (VfL Wolfsburg) and 61% (VfB Stuttgart). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfL Wolfsburg keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; VfB Stuttgart in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Wolfsburg play VfB Stuttgart?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of VfL Wolfsburg's recent matches and 65% of VfB Stuttgart's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VfL Wolfsburg vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of VfL Wolfsburg's matches and 61% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
VfL Wolfsburg have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfB Stuttgart cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over VfL Wolfsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat VfL Wolfsburg 0-2 at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.38 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.11 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. VfB Stuttgart outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.76 / defence 1.04 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.80 / defence 1.04, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 40% | Draw 33% | VfB Stuttgart 27%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual VfB Stuttgart win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 52%, VfB Stuttgart 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, VfL Wolfsburg arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with VfB Stuttgart winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.