VfL Wolfsburg 2-0 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hertha BSC make the trip to VOLKSWAGEN ARENA to face VfL Wolfsburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 February 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
VfL Wolfsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Wolfsburg at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
Hertha BSC have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward VfL Wolfsburg. A 1.60 PPG lead over Hertha BSC (2.10 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: VfL Wolfsburg 0W, Hertha BSC 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2020, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
VfL Wolfsburg — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Hertha BSC — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Wolfsburg 50% versus Hertha BSC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 46% | Hertha BSC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.52 xG and Hertha BSC 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.085 / defence 0.841 | Hertha BSC attack 0.705 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.435. Hertha BSC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing VfL Wolfsburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 VfL Wolfsburg games / 22 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 52% | Draw 28% | Hertha BSC 20%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Hertha BSC 5.00. VfL Wolfsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: VfL Wolfsburg 50% | Hertha BSC 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: VOLKSWAGEN ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 52% | Draw 28% | Hertha BSC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG VfL Wolfsburg 1.52 / Hertha BSC 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.085 / def 0.841 | Hertha BSC attack 0.705 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Hertha BSC xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 27 February 2021 at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC?
VfL Wolfsburg 2 - 0 Hertha BSC.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 52% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Hertha BSC?
Record (1 meetings): VfL Wolfsburg 0W | Draws 1 | Hertha BSC 0W.
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Hertha BSC in?
VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Hertha BSC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from VfL Wolfsburg's attack rating (1.08) and Hertha BSC's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hertha BSC's attack (0.70x) against VfL Wolfsburg's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
52%
1.93
28%
3.55
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
2.38
0.85
Hertha BSC xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
22%
4.51
4%
23.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.1 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 0.85 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
VfL Wolfsburg come into this having played 22 games, going 11W 9D 2L for 1.91 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hertha BSC sit at 0.82 PPG from 22 outings (4W 6D 12L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfL Wolfsburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.09 PPG clear of Hertha BSC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
VfL Wolfsburg's home form reads 6W 4D 0L across 10 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Hertha BSC have taken 0.70 points per game from 10 outings (1W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfL Wolfsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.18 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Defensively: VfL Wolfsburg have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 11W 9D 2L in their last 22 games (1.91 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 4W 6D 12L in their last 22 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or Hertha BSC away?
VfL Wolfsburg's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 2.20 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 0.70 PPG.
Have VfL Wolfsburg or Hertha BSC been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfL Wolfsburg have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Hertha BSC in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 May 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfL Wolfsburg won 0-5 on 24 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hertha BSC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
VfL Wolfsburg
2
Draws
1
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, Hertha BSC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 27 May 2023, when VfL Wolfsburg 1-2 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and Hertha BSC?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VfL Wolfsburg see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Hertha BSC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Wolfsburg 50%, Hertha BSC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (VfL Wolfsburg) and 50% (Hertha BSC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfL Wolfsburg keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; VfL Wolfsburg have failed to score in 30% of games; Hertha BSC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Wolfsburg play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of VfL Wolfsburg's games and 60% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfL Wolfsburg vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of VfL Wolfsburg's matches and 50% of Hertha BSC's.
VfL Wolfsburg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hertha BSC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg beat Hertha BSC 2-0 at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.52 xG and Hertha BSC 0.85 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hertha BSC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.08 / defence 0.84 against Hertha BSC attack 0.70 / defence 1.21, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 52% | Draw 28% | Hertha BSC 20%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 46%, Hertha BSC 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, VfL Wolfsburg arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 0.82. That form edge translated into the three points. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.