VfL Wolfsburg 1-2 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfL Wolfsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
VfL Wolfsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt meet at Volkswagen Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
VfL Wolfsburg (all games): 0W 2D 8L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Volkswagen Arena, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Eintracht Frankfurt have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Eintracht Frankfurt away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Eintracht Frankfurt are 1.00 PPG clear of VfL Wolfsburg in recent Bundesliga fixtures (1.20 vs 0.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — VfL Wolfsburg register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Eintracht Frankfurt in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for VfL Wolfsburg, 1 for Eintracht Frankfurt and 5 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
VfL Wolfsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Eintracht Frankfurt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfL Wolfsburg 71% and Eintracht Frankfurt 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 63% | Eintracht Frankfurt 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.71 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.861 / defence 1.285 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.049 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.710 / away 1.458. Data: 62 VfL Wolfsburg games / 62 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 34% | Draw 22% | Eintracht Frankfurt 44%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 2.94 | Draw 4.55 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.97) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
VfL Wolfsburg dominate the H2H record, yet Eintracht Frankfurt are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Eintracht Frankfurt are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.68 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: VfL Wolfsburg 90% | Eintracht Frankfurt 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Volkswagen Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 34% | Draw 22% | Eintracht Frankfurt 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 71% | xG VfL Wolfsburg 1.71 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.861 / def 1.285 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.049 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.710 / away 1.458 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.97
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
71%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Volkswagen Arena.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
VfL Wolfsburg 1 - 2 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at Volkswagen Arena.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 34% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 44% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (9 meetings): VfL Wolfsburg 3W | Draws 5 | Eintracht Frankfurt 1W.
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from VfL Wolfsburg's attack rating (0.86) and Eintracht Frankfurt's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Eintracht Frankfurt's attack (1.05x) against VfL Wolfsburg's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.97.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
34%
2.95
22%
4.52
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
3.68
1.97
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
2.95
34%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.42
Clean Sheet
14%
7.13
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
5%
21.03
8%
12.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.5 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.97 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.68.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
VfL Wolfsburg come into this having played 62 games, going 16W 16D 30L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Eintracht Frankfurt sit at 1.60 PPG from 62 outings (27W 18D 17L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-D across their last five.
Eintracht Frankfurt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of VfL Wolfsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
VfL Wolfsburg's home form reads 5W 10D 16L across 31 games on their own ground, a 0.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Eintracht Frankfurt have taken 1.32 points per game from 31 outings (10W 11D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.94 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Wolfsburg have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Eintracht Frankfurt in 66%.
Last 62 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Current Season
Eintracht Frankfurt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 16W 16D 30L in their last 62 games (1.03 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 27W 18D 17L in their last 62 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 0.81 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Eintracht Frankfurt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
VfL Wolfsburg
5
Draws
2
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when VfL Wolfsburg 1-2 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 77% for VfL Wolfsburg, 74% for Eintracht Frankfurt — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for VfL Wolfsburg and 64% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Wolfsburg play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of VfL Wolfsburg's games and 74% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfL Wolfsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of VfL Wolfsburg's matches and 64% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
VfL Wolfsburg have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Eintracht Frankfurt edge out VfL Wolfsburg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat VfL Wolfsburg 1-2 at Volkswagen Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.71 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.97 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.86 / defence 1.28 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.05 / defence 1.16, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 34% | Draw 22% | Eintracht Frankfurt 44%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 63%, Eintracht Frankfurt 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.03. That form edge translated into the three points. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.