VfB Stuttgart 2-0 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Werder Bremen make the trip to Stuttgart Arena to face VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 December 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
VfB Stuttgart have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stuttgart Arena, VfB Stuttgart have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Werder Bremen's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W D D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in VfB Stuttgart's favour (2.40 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — VfB Stuttgart register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Werder Bremen in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — VfB Stuttgart lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2023, ended 0–2 with Werder Bremen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
VfB Stuttgart goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Werder Bremen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 67% and Werder Bremen 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 70% | Werder Bremen 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 2.75 xG and Werder Bremen 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.241 / defence 0.915 | Werder Bremen attack 0.920 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.887 / away 1.451. Data: 46 VfB Stuttgart games / 46 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 68% | Draw 19% | Werder Bremen 13%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.47 | Draw 5.26 | Werder Bremen 7.69. The model has a clear lean to VfB Stuttgart (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.97. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.97 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.75 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 70% | Werder Bremen 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stuttgart Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Dec 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 68% | Draw 19% | Werder Bremen 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 67% | xG VfB Stuttgart 2.75 / Werder Bremen 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.241 / def 0.915 | Werder Bremen attack 0.920 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.887 / away 1.451 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.75
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Werder Bremen xG
67%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Stuttgart Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen?
VfB Stuttgart 2 - 0 Werder Bremen.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at Stuttgart Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 68% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 13% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen?
Record (4 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 2W | Draws 1 | Werder Bremen 1W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Werder Bremen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (1.24) and Werder Bremen's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 2.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Werder Bremen's attack (0.92x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.7%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.0%), 1-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
68%
1.47
19%
5.36
13%
7.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
2 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.75
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.97
1.22
Werder Bremen xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.36
19%
Draw
7.56
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
6%
15.60
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
1%
117.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 2.75 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.22 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 3.97.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 46 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 18W 10D 18L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Werder Bremen's form line: 13W 8D 25L from 46 games, 1.02 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for VfB Stuttgart against 1.02 for Werder Bremen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 1.73 PPG from 22 outings (11W 5D 6L).
On the road, Werder Bremen have gone 5W 5D 12L from 22 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.50 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Werder Bremen in 65%.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
Werder Bremen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 18W 10D 18L in their last 46 games (1.39 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 13W 8D 25L in their last 46 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Werder Bremen away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.73 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 0-4 on 14 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Werder Bremen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
VfB Stuttgart
3
Draws
3
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, Werder Bremen have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Werder Bremen see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for VfB Stuttgart, 68% for Werder Bremen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for VfB Stuttgart and 64% for Werder Bremen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Werder Bremen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 68% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 64% of Werder Bremen's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfB Stuttgart cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Werder Bremen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat Werder Bremen 2-0 at Stuttgart Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 2.75 xG and Werder Bremen 1.22 xG, a combined 3.97. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Werder Bremen landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.24 / defence 0.92 against Werder Bremen attack 0.92 / defence 1.17, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 68% | Draw 19% | Werder Bremen 13%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 70%, Werder Bremen 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.39 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.