VfB Stuttgart 1-1 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees VfL Wolfsburg travel to Mercedes-Benz-Arena to take on VfB Stuttgart. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 April 2022, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfB Stuttgart have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
VfB Stuttgart's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Mercedes-Benz-Arena this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfL Wolfsburg stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
VfL Wolfsburg's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (VfB Stuttgart) versus 1.30 (VfL Wolfsburg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for VfB Stuttgart, 0 for VfL Wolfsburg and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 2–0 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
VfL Wolfsburg trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfB Stuttgart 65% versus VfL Wolfsburg 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 54% | VfL Wolfsburg 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 2.13 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.962 / defence 1.268 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.861 / defence 1.368. League average goals — home 1.617 / away 1.325. VfL Wolfsburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.368 — this is suppressing VfB Stuttgart's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 65 VfB Stuttgart games / 65 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 52% | Draw 23% | VfL Wolfsburg 25%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | VfL Wolfsburg 4.00. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.13 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.58 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: VfB Stuttgart 60% | VfL Wolfsburg 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Mercedes-Benz-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 52% | Draw 23% | VfL Wolfsburg 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 68% | xG VfB Stuttgart 2.13 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.962 / def 1.268 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.861 / def 1.368 | league avg home 1.617 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.45
VfL Wolfsburg xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg?
VfB Stuttgart 1 - 1 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 52% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg?
Record (1 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 1W | Draws 0 | VfL Wolfsburg 0W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (0.96) and VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 2.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
52%
1.92
23%
4.38
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.58
1.45
VfL Wolfsburg xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.16
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
12%
8.40
Win to Nil
12%
8.14
3%
33.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.45 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 65 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 18W 19D 28L record — W-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
VfL Wolfsburg's form line: 28W 14D 23L from 65 games, 1.51 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfB Stuttgart on 1.12 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 1.22 PPG from 32 outings (10W 9D 13L).
On the road, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 11W 8D 13L from 32 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.54 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: VfL Wolfsburg in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Current Season
VfL Wolfsburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 18W 19D 28L in their last 65 games (1.12 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 28W 14D 23L in their last 65 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
VfL Wolfsburg's away record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.22 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.28 PPG.
Have VfB Stuttgart or VfL Wolfsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfB Stuttgart have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, VfL Wolfsburg in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
VfB Stuttgart have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Mar 2026, when VfB Stuttgart won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfB Stuttgart's record when hosting VfL Wolfsburg specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
VfB Stuttgart
2
Draws
3
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 5, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 4-0 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 72%, VfL Wolfsburg 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (VfB Stuttgart) and 56% (VfL Wolfsburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play VfL Wolfsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 53% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 56% of VfL Wolfsburg's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg finished level at 1-1 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, Regular Season - 32, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 2.13 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.45 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.96 / defence 1.27 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.86 / defence 1.37, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 52% | Draw 23% | VfL Wolfsburg 25%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 54%, VfL Wolfsburg 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.12 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.