VfB Stuttgart 3-0 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 51%, yet in-form Hamburger SV provide a compelling counter-argument — this VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Relegation Round sees Hamburger SV travel to Mercedes-Benz-Arena to take on VfB Stuttgart. The game is scheduled for Thursday 1 June 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfB Stuttgart stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
VfB Stuttgart's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Mercedes-Benz-Arena this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Hamburger SV have recorded 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Hamburger SV haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Hamburger SV's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hamburger SV are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. VfB Stuttgart register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Hamburger SV in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
VfB Stuttgart in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Hamburger SV in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 75% and Hamburger SV 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 64% | Hamburger SV 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.80 xG and Hamburger SV 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.864 / defence 1.018 | Hamburger SV attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.812 / away 1.298. Data: 68 VfB Stuttgart games / 0 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 51% | Draw 28% | Hamburger SV 21%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Hamburger SV 4.76. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hamburger SV (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 70% | Hamburger SV 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round | Venue: Mercedes-Benz-Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 1 Jun 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 51% | Draw 28% | Hamburger SV 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.80 / Hamburger SV 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.864 / def 1.018 | Hamburger SV attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.812 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Hamburger SV xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 19:45 on Thursday 1 June 2023 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV?
VfB Stuttgart 3 - 0 Hamburger SV.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV is a Relegation Round fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 51% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Hamburger SV?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Hamburger SV in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Hamburger SV (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (0.86) and Hamburger SV's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hamburger SV's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
51%
1.96
28%
3.62
21%
4.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
2.92
1.12
Hamburger SV xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
4.67
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
17%
6.06
Win to Nil
17%
6.03
4%
28.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.9 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.12 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VfB Stuttgart's recent record stands at 8W 13D 15L from 36 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-D in the last five.
Hamburger SV, meanwhile, have gone 17W 12D 7L across 36 games — 1.75 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. Hamburger SV haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hamburger SV by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over VfB Stuttgart heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, VfB Stuttgart have managed 6W 6D 6L from 18 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hamburger SV's away record stands at 8W 6D 4L across 18 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.89 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Hamburger SV in 64%.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Current Season
Hamburger SV
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 8W 13D 15L in their last 36 games (1.03 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 17W 12D 7L in their last 36 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Hamburger SV away?
Hamburger SV's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.33 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Apr 2026, when VfB Stuttgart won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfB Stuttgart's record when hosting Hamburger SV specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
VfB Stuttgart
0
Draws
1
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Hamburger SV?
From 4 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 3, Hamburger SV have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 4-0 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and Hamburger SV?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VfB Stuttgart at 72%, Hamburger SV at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (VfB Stuttgart) and 44% (Hamburger SV).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Hamburger SV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 61% of Hamburger SV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of VfB Stuttgart's recent games and 44% of Hamburger SV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant VfB Stuttgart run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Hamburger SV.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat Hamburger SV 3-0 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, Relegation Round, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.80 xG and Hamburger SV 1.12 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hamburger SV landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.86 / defence 1.02 against Hamburger SV attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 68/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 51% | Draw 28% | Hamburger SV 21%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 64%, Hamburger SV 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with VfB Stuttgart winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.