VfB Stuttgart 1-1 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mercedes-Benz-Arena plays host to VfB Stuttgart versus 1. FC Köln in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Friday 23 October 2020 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
VfB Stuttgart's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games (1.75 PPG). Last five: L W D W. They are averaging 2.25 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. VfB Stuttgart have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Köln have collected 0.25 PPG across 4 Bundesliga outings this season: 0W 1D 3L. Last five: L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. 1. FC Köln have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. VfB Stuttgart's 1.75 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of 1. FC Köln's 0.25 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — VfB Stuttgart register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, 1. FC Köln in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
VfB Stuttgart half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
1. FC Köln half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 75% and 1. FC Köln 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 50% | 1. FC Köln 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.32 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.984 / defence 1.311 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.661 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.420. Data: 4 VfB Stuttgart games / 4 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 35% | Draw 34% | 1. FC Köln 31%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | 1. FC Köln 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 75% | 1. FC Köln 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Mercedes-Benz-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 23 Oct 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 35% | Draw 34% | 1. FC Köln 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 56% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.32 / 1. FC Köln 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.984 / def 1.311 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.661 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.186 / away 1.420 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.23
1. FC Köln xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 23 October 2020 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
VfB Stuttgart 1 - 1 1. FC Köln.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 35% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 2.25 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-W-D-W. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates VfB Stuttgart's attack at 0.98x the league average against 1. FC Köln's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Köln's attack (0.66x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
35%
2.86
34%
2.92
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
2.55
1.23
1. FC Köln xG
2.86
35%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
10%
9.77
8%
12.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.7 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.23 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 4 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 2W 1D 1L record — L-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
1. FC Köln's form line: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games, 0.25 PPG, last five L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, VfB Stuttgart are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against 1. FC Köln.
Attack vs Defence
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; 1. FC Köln in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
1. FC Köln
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 (0.25 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
VfB Stuttgart go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 3-0 on 18 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
VfB Stuttgart
3
Draws
1
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 6, 1. FC Köln have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 3-1 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for VfB Stuttgart, 75% for 1. FC Köln — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (VfB Stuttgart) and 50% (1. FC Köln).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play 1. FC Köln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 75% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of VfB Stuttgart's recent games and 50% of 1. FC Köln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, Regular Season - 5, as VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.32 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.23 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.98 / defence 1.31 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.66 / defence 1.13, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 35% | Draw 34% | 1. FC Köln 31%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 50%, 1. FC Köln 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. VfB Stuttgart managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward. 1. FC Köln conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.