Union Berlin 1-0 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union Berlin (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Union Berlin face Werder Bremen.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion An der Alten Försterei plays host to Union Berlin versus Werder Bremen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Saturday 27 May 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Union Berlin (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Union Berlin's home record at Stadion An der Alten Försterei: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion An der Alten Försterei. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Union Berlin are significantly better at Stadion An der Alten Försterei than their overall form suggests.
Werder Bremen's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Werder Bremen have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Union Berlin. A 0.90 PPG lead over Werder Bremen (1.50 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Across 3 previous meetings, Union Berlin are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2023, ended 2–1 with Union Berlin winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Union Berlin and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Werder Bremen — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 96% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 84% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 55% and Werder Bremen 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 52% | Werder Bremen 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 2.23 xG and Werder Bremen 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.982 / defence 0.735 | Werder Bremen attack 1.051 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.826 / away 1.302. Werder Bremen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.240 — this is suppressing Union Berlin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Union Berlin's defence rating of 0.735 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 67 Union Berlin games / 33 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 63% | Draw 23% | Werder Bremen 14%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 1.59 | Draw 4.35 | Werder Bremen 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Union Berlin (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union Berlin as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 50% | Werder Bremen 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 27 May 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 63% | Draw 23% | Werder Bremen 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 58% | xG Union Berlin 2.23 / Werder Bremen 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.982 / def 0.735 | Werder Bremen attack 1.051 / def 1.240 | league avg home 1.826 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Werder Bremen xG
58%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen kick off?
Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 27 May 2023 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen?
Union Berlin 1 - 0 Werder Bremen.
Where is Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen part of?
Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 63% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 14% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Union Berlin and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Werder Bremen?
Record (3 meetings): Union Berlin 3W | Draws 0 | Werder Bremen 0W.
What form are Union Berlin and Werder Bremen in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Werder Bremen (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Union Berlin's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Werder Bremen's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.23. Flip it around — Werder Bremen's attack (1.05x) against Union Berlin's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 67/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
63%
1.58
23%
4.39
14%
7.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
3.23
1.01
Werder Bremen xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
7.11
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
11%
9.25
Win to Nil
23%
4.33
2%
65.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.01 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 67 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 33W 17D 17L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Werder Bremen's form line: 28W 15D 24L from 67 games, 1.48 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for Union Berlin against 1.48 for Werder Bremen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 2.15 PPG from 33 outings (20W 11D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Werder Bremen have gone 15W 7D 11L from 33 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union Berlin are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.73 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen in 69%.
Last 67 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Current Season
Werder Bremen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 33W 17D 17L in their last 67 games (1.73 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 28W 15D 24L in their last 67 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Werder Bremen away?
Union Berlin's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 2.15 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Werder Bremen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Werder Bremen won 4-1 on 21 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Werder Bremen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Union Berlin
1
Draws
4
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Werder Bremen?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 5, Werder Bremen have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Union Berlin 1-4 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Werder Bremen?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 54%, Werder Bremen 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 46% for Union Berlin and 79% for Werder Bremen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play Werder Bremen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Union Berlin's games and 73% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Union Berlin's matches and 79% of Werder Bremen's.
Do Union Berlin and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union Berlin edge out Werder Bremen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat Werder Bremen 1-0 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 34, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 2.23 xG and Werder Bremen 1.01 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Union Berlin fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Werder Bremen landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.98 / defence 0.73 against Werder Bremen attack 1.05 / defence 1.24, drawn from 67/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 63% | Draw 23% | Werder Bremen 14%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 52%, Werder Bremen 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.73 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. Union Berlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.