Union Berlin 2-0 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Borussia Dortmund travel to Stadion An der Alten Försterei to take on Union Berlin. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 October 2022, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union Berlin stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin's home record at Stadion An der Alten Försterei: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Union Berlin at 2.30 PPG versus Borussia Dortmund's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Union Berlin register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Borussia Dortmund in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Union Berlin have won 0, Borussia Dortmund 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2022, ended 0–3 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Union Berlin in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 56% and Borussia Dortmund 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 49% | Borussia Dortmund 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.82 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 1.077 / defence 0.782 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.079 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.659 / away 1.412. Union Berlin's defence rating of 0.782 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Union Berlin games / 43 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 51% | Draw 24% | Borussia Dortmund 24%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Borussia Dortmund 4.17. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union Berlin are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Berlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 70% | Borussia Dortmund 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 51% | Draw 24% | Borussia Dortmund 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Union Berlin 1.82 / Borussia Dortmund 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 1.077 / def 0.782 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.079 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.659 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Borussia Dortmund xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Union Berlin 2 - 0 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 51% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (2 meetings): Union Berlin 0W | Draws 0 | Borussia Dortmund 2W.
What form are Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union Berlin's attack at 1.08x the league average against Borussia Dortmund's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
51%
1.95
24%
4.12
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
3.01
1.19
Borussia Dortmund xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
16%
6.15
Win to Nil
16%
6.40
4%
25.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.7 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.19 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 22W 11D 10L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund's form line: 27W 4D 12L from 43 games, 1.98 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union Berlin on 1.79 PPG, Borussia Dortmund on 1.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 2.14 PPG from 21 outings (13W 6D 2L).
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 11W 3D 7L from 21 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.28 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund in 70%.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 22W 11D 10L in their last 43 games (1.79 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 27W 4D 12L in their last 43 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Union Berlin's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 2.14 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Borussia Dortmund have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Feb 2025, when Borussia Dortmund won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union Berlin's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Union Berlin
0
Draws
8
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 2, Borussia Dortmund have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Union Berlin 0-3 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 57%, Borussia Dortmund 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Union Berlin) and 67% (Borussia Dortmund).
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Union Berlin's games and 71% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Union Berlin's recent games and 67% of Borussia Dortmund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Borussia Dortmund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat Borussia Dortmund 2-0 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.82 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.19 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 1.08 / defence 0.78 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.08 / defence 1.02, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 51% | Draw 24% | Borussia Dortmund 24%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 49%, Borussia Dortmund 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.79 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 1.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. Union Berlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.