Union Berlin 2-1 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Borussia Dortmund at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Borussia Dortmund travel to Stadion An der Alten Försterei to take on Union Berlin. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 December 2020, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union Berlin stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin's home record at Stadion An der Alten Försterei: 2W 3D 1L from 6 Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund away from home this season: 4W 1D 1L from 6 away games — 2.17 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.83 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Union Berlin at 1.70 PPG versus Borussia Dortmund's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Union Berlin in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 83% and Borussia Dortmund 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Union Berlin 67% | Borussia Dortmund 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.64 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 1.266 / defence 1.106 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.987 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 1.611. Union Berlin carry an above-average attack strength of 1.266 — their λ of 1.64 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 12 Union Berlin games / 12 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 33% | Draw 28% | Borussia Dortmund 38%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Borussia Dortmund 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.40 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 67% | Borussia Dortmund 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Friday 18 Dec 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 33% | Draw 28% | Borussia Dortmund 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 70% | xG Union Berlin 1.64 / Borussia Dortmund 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 1.266 / def 1.106 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.987 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.246 / away 1.611 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Borussia Dortmund xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 18 December 2020 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Union Berlin 2 - 1 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 33% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union Berlin's attack at 1.27x the league average against Borussia Dortmund's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
33%
3.00
28%
3.52
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
3.40
1.76
Borussia Dortmund xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.29
Clean Sheet
17%
5.81
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
6%
17.44
7%
13.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.6 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.76 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 12 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 4W 6D 2L record — W-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund's form line: 7W 1D 4L from 12 games, 1.83 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union Berlin on 1.50 PPG, Borussia Dortmund on 1.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 1.50 PPG from 6 outings (2W 3D 1L).
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 away games — 2.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.08 scored and 1.33 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games.
Defensively: Borussia Dortmund in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 4W 6D 2L in their last 12 games (1.50 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 7W 1D 4L in their last 12 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.50 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Union Berlin or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Borussia Dortmund have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Feb 2025, when Borussia Dortmund won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union Berlin's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Union Berlin
0
Draws
8
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 2, Borussia Dortmund have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Union Berlin 0-3 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 67%, Borussia Dortmund 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Union Berlin) and 33% (Borussia Dortmund).
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Borussia Dortmund in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Union Berlin's games and 50% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Union Berlin's recent games and 33% of Borussia Dortmund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union Berlin defy the odds to beat Borussia Dortmund 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat Borussia Dortmund 2-1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.64 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.76 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 1.27 / defence 1.11 against Borussia Dortmund attack 0.99 / defence 1.04, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 33% | Draw 28% | Borussia Dortmund 38%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Union Berlin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 67%, Borussia Dortmund 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.50 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.